Yesterday, I found myself looking through my tracked MLB picks and noticed there was one particular player prop market that I was having a lot of success in betting. That market happens to be pitcher-outs recorded, and since July 31st, I’ve gone 9-3 on those prop bets. After seeing that, I decided to fully dive into that market today and break down all six of tonight’s evening games.
To make it more organized, I’ve broken down how I would bet the market in three categories: over, under, and no play. Taking it a step further, the plays in each category go in chronological order of how much I like them, so, for example, the first over pick might be a full unit investment, while the last one would likely be a half-unit play.
Kodai Senga Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-140/BetMGM): The right-hander has been phenomenal this year, and over his last ten games, he has completed at least the sixth inning in eight of them. The last time Senga did not finish the sixth inning was August 2nd, and tonight, he’ll take on a Marlins lineup that is 17th in wRC+ and 15th in OPS against right-handed pitching over the last month.
Bobby Miller Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135/Caesers): The rookie has exceeded tonight’s total in seven of his last ten games, and he’ll match up with a Tigers lineup tonight that is hitting .245 and ranks 28th in hard-hit percentage and 20th in OPS against righties on the road over the past month. With an above-league-average ground ball rate and first-pitch strike percentage, the rookie looks to be set up for another strong outing.
Kevin Gausman Over 17.5 Outs (-147/Caesers): Toronto needs to keep winning to protect their spot in the Wild Card, and Gausman is an excellent starter to have on the mound for it. Not only is he in the 61st percentile in xERA and xBA, but he’s facing a Yankees lineup hitting .170 with a .272 wOBA against righties at home over the past month.
Michael King Over 14.5 Outs (-119/Caesers): In the four starts he’s made, King completed the fifth inning in two of them and has seen his pitch count steadily increase. King lasted 4.2 innings in his last start but threw a season-high 87 pitches. What hurt the right-hander in that start was his high strikeout numbers, but tonight, he’s taking on a Blue Jays team with the 3rd lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching on the road in the past 30 days.
Zack Thompson Under 15.5 Outs (-159/Caesers): Thompson is competing for a starter role next season, and in the seven starts he’s made towards the end of the season, he’s only gone over tonight’s total in one of them. Being in the 29th percentile in xERA and 11th percentile in hard-hit percentage will certainly keep outings on the shorter side. To make matters worse for Thompson tonight, he faces a Brewers team that sees an average of 4.03 pitches per plate appearance, the highest average in the league.
Reid Detmers Under 15.5 Outs (-110/BetMGM): Detmers has arguably been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball this season. He’ll go through stretches where he allows 14 earned runs combined in two outings, and then he’ll suddenly throw seven shutout innings on the road. In his last ten starts, Detmers has exceeded this total in four of them, and with a 5.11 xFIP on the road, he has work cut out for him tonight against the Rays.
Since August 20th, the Rays are hitting .315 with a .949 OPS against left-handed pitching at home, and not to mention every game matters to them since they are amid a playoff race. With their offensive numbers and a league-high 14.6% walk rate in that same split, I think they make it a short day for the left-hander.
Mitch Keller 17.5 Outs: Keller will take on the Cubs tonight, and while he dominated them a few weeks ago, this Cubs lineup can catch fire instantly. After watching Chicago put up 14 runs last night at home and knowing they need every game to keep pace in the Wild Card, I’d rather not touch this game.
Reese Olson 15.5 Outs: If someone were looking for a plus money play in this category, I would probably say Olson to go over this total at +110 is worth a look, but for me, I’m not a fan of taking a prop against the Dodgers lineup at home. There are certainly arguments to be made for both sides, but ultimately, I’m staying away from it.