26.06.2023

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets Game Preview and Pick

Following another catastrophic loss late in the game, the New York Mets return home with a 4-6 record over their last ten games and a fan base ready to give up on them if they haven’t already. Tonight they will play host to a Brewers team that is fresh off a series win against the Guardians, and we’ll preview the game before going over my play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

Despite closing all three games as underdogs, the Milwaukee Brewers were able to go into Cleveland and take two out of three from the Guardians, culminating in a 5-4 win yesterday in the rubber match. The Brewers jumped out to an early 4-1 lead, but starter Corbin Burnes could not hold that lead as he allowed three runs in the sixth to tie it. Ultimately Owen Miller would come up big with an RBI double in the 10th to secure the series.

As they look to keep the momentum going tonight in New York, the Brewers will send right-hander Collin Rea to the mound for his 12th start. Up to this point in the year, Rea has thrown 57.3 innings and pitched to a 4.71 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 22 walks. The righty has struggled in his last two outings, as he allowed four earned runs in both games.

Rea will take on a Mets lineup that did their job yesterday despite the team being unable to come away with the win. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso hit home runs in the game, while Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte also drove in runs. However, those six runs would not be enough, with the Phillies scoring four in the 8th to steal the game 7-6. That loss made it so New York has still not won a series since June 1st.

It is never good when a team starts to enter desperation mode in the first half of the season, but that seems to be the case with the Mets. As they look to put yesterday behind them, they will send Justin Verlander to the mound for his 10th start. The veteran has amassed 52 innings and has a 4.50 ERA with 44 punchouts and 14 walks.

Pick for the Game

The total for the first five innings in this one is currently set at 4.5, and I’ll be taking the under for my play. New York ranks 25th in the league in average runs scored per game in the first five innings at home, while Milwaukee ranks 23rd in average runs when playing on the road. This has led to both teams being profitable F5 under teams, and I expect that to continue tonight.

Over the past month, the Brewers rank 29th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against right-handed pitching on the road. Now they will face a starter in Justin Verlander, that has been far better at home this season as he has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three home starts. Opponents are now hitting .207 against Verlander at home, and his expected FIP shows he will likely continue to be solid at Citi Field.

The Mets' offense has also struggled with right-handed pitching recently, as they rank 28th in OPS and wOBA and 27th in wRC+ against righties at home over the last month. Collin Rea has not been too sharp recently, but opponents are still hitting .222 against him when he’s on the road, and he has a 2.13 ERA the first time through the order, which is why we are sticking with the F5 total tonight.