27.06.2023

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets Game Preview and Pick: Target the Underdog

The wheels continue to fall off the bus for the New York Mets as they opened their series with the Brewers with another loss, which makes them 3-7 over their last ten games. New York has three more games with the Brewers, and we’ll preview tonight’s game before going over why I’ll be fading the Mets in this one.

Game Preview

After scoring six runs on Sunday, the Mets' offense returned home and immediately struggled to find the hit column. New York registered just three hits and one run in the game, which came off the bat of Francisco Lindor. The Mets' offense gave their pitching staff a very small margin for error, so when Drew Smith allowed two runs in the sixth inning, that became all the Brewers needed to secure a 2-1 victory.

New York did get a strong start from Justin Verlander, as the veteran went five scoreless with five punchouts. Tonight the Mets will hand the ball to left-hander David Peterson, who has been down in Triple-A since May 15th due to a brutal start to the season. Prior to being sent down, Peterson was pitching to an 8.08 ERA with 45 strikeouts and 14 walks in 39 innings. New York’s injury woes have given the lefty another shot to prove he belongs at this level.

In his first start back, Peterson will face a Brewers lineup that won’t blow anyone away but still does enough to get the job done. Milwaukee was able to register seven hits yesterday, and, despite leaving 24 runners on base, all they needed was a two-run home run off the bat of Joey Weimer to secure the win and bring their record to 7-3 over their past ten games.

The Brewers' starter tonight is another pitcher who was given a chance to prove he could still compete at this level in Julio Teheran. It is certainly safe to say he’s proved it so far since he is pitching to a 1.53 ERA in 35.3 innings. Across the six starts Teheran has made, he is yet to allow more than two earned runs.

Pick for the Game

Milwaukee is coming in at (+130) on the moneyline in most places, and I’ll be backing them for my play in this one. As we saw last night, these are not offenses that jump off the page at anyone, so if we take it one step further and focus on pitching, the Brewers have the advantage in this matchup in terms of starters and bullpen.

Over the last month, the Mets are hitting .198 against right-handed pitching at home while ranking 28th in OPS and 29th in wOBA and wRC+.They’ll face a starter tonight in the 72nd percentile in expected batting average, 81st percentile in hard hit percentage, and 78th percentile in xERA/xwOBA. Additionally, the Brewers bullpen is pitching to a 3.66 ERA and is tenth in left on-base percentage over the past month.

Milwaukee’s offense has produced similarly bad numbers in their matchup tonight as they have struggled with lefties on the road, but I trust them more to scratch runs across against Peterson and the Mets bullpen. Peterson was in the 17th percentile in expected batting average and 25th percentile in hard hit percentage during his time in the Majors this season. In Triple-A, he was not necessarily overpowering hitters either, posting a 4.86 ERA in 37 innings.