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27.11.2023

Mid Major Money Nov. 27th Edition

Feast Week remains to be one of the best weeks of the college basketball season, and now, with it in the past, we inch closer to conference play. Before we get into those conference showdowns, there are still a few events and non-conference games to be played. A majority of today’s matchups feature some non-conference mind-major games, and we’ll take a closer look at three of them in today’s edition of Mid-Major Money.

Presbyterian Blue Hose vs. Elon Phoenix (-3.5) O/U 144

For a mid-major, starting the season by beating a power-five opponent is as good as you can get, and that was the case for Presbyterian this season. After beating Vanderbilt on opening night, the Blue Hose rattled off three more wins before losing two of their last three games to give them a 5-2 record entering tonight. The Blue Hose started the year with four solid defensive efforts, but their efficiency on that side of the ball has started to head in the wrong direction.

Over their last three games, Presbyterian has put up a defensive efficiency of 100 or higher. Opponents have shot 47% or better from the field against the Blue Hose over their last three games, and mind you, their non-conference strength of schedule rating is ranked 334th on KenPom. Offensively, the Blue Hose have been led by transfer guard Samage Teel, and after scoring 14 points in their loss to Tennessee Tech, Teel and the Blue Hose offense have an ideal matchup tonight against Elon.

The Phoenix managed to win two of their three games during Feast Week, giving them a 3-3 record overall, but currently on KenPom, they rank 353rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency rating. Opponents have managed a 53.5% effective field goal percentage on the Phoenix, ranking them 283rd in that category.

While Elon may not have the defensive makeup for long-term success, their offense will certainly be able to keep them in a lot of games if they continue to shoot the way they have. Even after struggling in their most recent loss to Winthrop, the Phoenix are still 35th in effective field goal percentage (55.4%0 and 9th in three-point percentage (41.5%).

Pick: Over 144

Eastern Washington @ Washington State (-13.5) O/U 149

Before you say anything, yes, I know Washington State is not a mid-major, but Eastern Washington is, so since I write these articles, I will allow an exception. Washington State’s schedule up to this point has been very mid-major heavy, as their lone loss came against another power five opponent in Mississippi State. The Cougars have done what they’ve needed to do against a non-conference schedule rating that ranks 308th on KenPom.

Through five games, the Cougars are averaging 80.4 points per game and have an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%, which ranks 17th in the country. Washington State has gotten a lot of their offense from Idaho transfer Isaac Jones, averaging 13.8 points per game. Jones and the Cougars offense will take on an Eastern Washington team tonight that has played an absolute gauntlet of a schedule to start the year.

In five games, the Eagles have played four power five opponents, which has led them to rank 224th in defensive rating on KenPom. Between losing their leading scorer last year to the portal and this schedule, the Eagles have had a less-than-ideal start to the season. Even with that, though, EWU is 2-2 ATS, and with their fast-paced offense, I think they can hang around tonight with the Cougars. Washington sports bettors should act quickly, though, because this number could be bet down in a hurry.

Pick: Eastern Washington (+13.5)

Utah Tech @ Lindenwood (+3.5) O/U 142.5

The last time Utah Tech was on the floor, it happened to be against Washington State, but tonight, they have a much more ideal matchup against Lindenwood. Through five games, the Trailblazers' offense has produced some lackluster numbers, averaging 67.8 points per game with an adjusted offensive rating that ranks 258th.

One area Utah Tech has shown some signs of success is from beyond the three-point line, ranking 72nd in three-point percentage. Luckily for them, not only is their opponent tonight 295th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 154th in opponent three-point percentage, but Lindenwood has been even worse offensively than the Trailblazers this season, ranking 351st in adjusted offensive rating on KenPom.

Pick: Utah Tech (-3.5)

Recap

  • Presbyterian vs. Elon Over 144

  • Eastern Washington (+13.5)

  • Utah Tech (-3.5)

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