22.08.2023

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Game Preview and Pick

The Marlins' trip to California has not been ideal. After beating the Dodgers in game one of their series, the Marlins have now lost three straight games, including last night’s series opener against the Padres. With two more games left in the series, Miami will be looking to salvage their West Coast trip, and we’ll tonight’s game before going over why I’ll be targeting an F5 team total for my play.

Game Preview

San Diego’s homestand started off on a great note by beating the Orioles in a series, but they followed that up by losing three out of four to the Diamondbacks. The last series of their homestand opened last night after an off-day, and they were able to come away with a 6-2 win over Miami.

The offense wasted no time getting to Marlins starter Ryan Weathers, scoring five runs in the first two innings. Ha-Seong Kim and Manny Machado would drive in all six of the team's runs, with four coming from Kim's grand slam.

Getting the ball tonight for San Diego as they look to secure a series win will be Cy Young candidate Blake Snell. The lefty enters tonight sporting a 2.63 ERA in 130 innings of work and is coming off back-to-back wins. In his most recent outing against the Orioles, Snell allowed two earned runs over six innings while also picking up five strikeouts.

Snell is facing the Marlins offense at the perfect time, as Miami has scored four runs over their last three games. In last night’s loss, the Marlins offense struck out 12 times and left 13 runners on base, with their only offensive highlight’s coming from Josh Bell’s solo home run and Jesus Sanchez’s RBI double.

With a chance to snap a three-game losing streak and even the series, the Marlins will have Jesus Luzardo on the mound for his 26th start. The lefty has struggled mightily over his last four starts, allowing four or more earned runs in each of them. Most recently, Luzardo was knocked out of the game after 3.2 innings against the Astros after he allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits.

Pick for the Game

The Padres F5 team total is currently set at 2.5, and I’ll be taking the over for my play which is priced at (+105). For starters, the over on the Padres F5 team total is 20-14 in their last 34 home games. San Diego has also had a lot of success against left-handed pitching recently, so it makes it even better that the lefty starter they face tonight has been allowing runs at an alarming rate.

Since July 22nd, the Padres offense is hitting .365 and ranks 3rd in OPS, 2nd in wOBA, and 1st in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers at home. San Diego is also 10th in hard-hit percentage, which does not bode well for Jesus Luzardo since he is in the 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 10th percentile in barrel percentage.

Luzardo also finds himself in the 44th percentile in xERA/xwOBA and 26th percentile in expected slugging percentage. The lefty has not only been shaky recently, but he’s struggled on the road this season, pitching to a 4.85 ERA with a .288 batting average against in 52 road innings. With the Padres lineup boasting three players ranked inside the top-25 for wRC+ against left-handed pitching (min. 100 at-bats), I think they can find early success tonight, much like they did yesterday.