12.09.2023

Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview and Pick

As the Brewers try to stand their ground and remain atop the NL Central division, the Miami Marlins are among the many teams vying for the final Wild Card spot. Milwaukee took round one of the four-game set between the two playoff hopefuls, and we’ll preview the second game before going over our play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

Complete games are not something baseball fans see as often as they used to, but last night, Brandon Woodruff turned back the clock in that sense by spinning a complete game shutout in the Brewers 12-0 win. While Woodruff was dominating the Marlins lineup, the Brewers' offense was taking it to the Fins' pitching staff, recording 17 hits, six of which went for extra bases, including a Mark Canha home run.

For tonight’s game, Milwaukee will turn to another one of their impressive starters in, Freddy Peralta. The right-hander did not have his best stuff working in his most recent outing, allowing three earned runs over 5.1 innings on the way to a no-decision. Even with that subpar performance, Peralta is still averaging 8.4 strikeouts and 1.7 earned runs over his last ten starts.

Peralta’s matchup tonight will be a Marlins lineup that recorded more strikeouts than hits last night. Even with last night’s losing effort, Miami is still 7-3 over their last ten games and has scored five or more runs in six of those games. While they were struggling from the start, the Miami pitching staff did the offense no favors since starter Jesus Luzardo allowed six earned runs in five innings.

Even with the blowout loss, one of the best aspects of baseball is the ability to turn around and play the next day. Looking to put the loss behind them, the Marlins will call on their bullpen to carry them on the mound tonight. Miami will open the game with JT Chargois, who has made two starts and pitched just an inning in each of them. In total, on the year, Chargois has appeared in 37 games and has pitched to a 3.63 ERA.

Pick for the Game

The Brewers F5 run-line of (-.5) is currently priced at (-115), and I’ll be backing them for my play. Milwaukee is rolling out another impressive right-handed starter, which gives them an advantage on the mound. At the dish, the Brewers have been one of the best-hitting teams while playing at home across the past month, which was on display last night with their 17 hits.

When facing a right-handed pitcher at home over the past month, the Brewers are hitting .273 and rank 10th in OPS, 8th in wRC+, and 7th in wOBA. In all games at home over the past month, the Brewers are hitting .289 and rank 2nd in wOBA and wRC+. This shows Milwaukee will be fine no matter what reliever the Marlins throw at them after Chargois. The impressive hitting stats also bode well since the Marlins bullpen has the 12th-highest ERA and xFIP in the league over the past month.

Miami’s offense ranks 25th in hard hit percentage, 17th in wRC+, 16th in wOBA, and 14th in OPS against righties since August 12th. Numbers like that won’t get the job done against Freddy Peralta, who is in the 86th percentile in expected batting average, 85th percentile in expected ERA, and has a 2.99 xFIP on his home mound.