25.05.2023

Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies Game Preview and Pick

With a win this afternoon, the Rockies can secure a series win over the Marlins and start their homestand off on a good note. We’ll preview today’s matchup before going over why I’ll be targeting a play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

The Marlins' win yesterday allows them to play for a series split today and have a happy plane ride to LA for their next series. After two losses in close games to start the series, the Marlins took it to the Rockies yesterday on both sides of the field as they came away with a 10-2 victory. Jorge Soler continued his impressive home run pace as he left the yard for the third time in four games.

Left-hander Braxton Garrett will get the start for Miami, looking for his third consecutive strong start. In eight starts and 43 innings, Garrett has pitched to a 4.60 ERA with 44 strikeouts and just eight walks. The lefty has gotten no decisions in his two recent starts, but the numbers are still really impressive, as he went 11 ⅓ innings with 16 strikeouts and one earned run allowed.

Garrett will face a Rockies lineup that, despite currently winning the series, they have been out-hit in all three games. Aside from an Elias Diaz home run and Jurickson Profar RBI double yesterday, the Rockies' offense was not creating a lot of run-scoring opportunities to cash in on. Colorado has won the final game of six of their last seven series heading into today, so we’ll see if the offense can put yesterday aside and finish on a high note.

Colorado will also send a lefty to the mound as Kyle Freeland will get his 11th start of the year. In 53.3 innings, Freeland has a 3.88 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 12 walks. The lefty had a rough go of it in his most recent start against the Rangers, as he left the game after two innings with eight runs on the board, five of which were earned.

Pick for the Game

The Marlins F5 moneyline is currently priced at (-125), and I’ll be backing them for my play. Miami is sending out one of the Rockies' biggest nightmares this season which is a left-handed pitcher in their home ballpark. Conversely, Miami has hit lefties well on the road this month, so I think they can build a lead before the bullpens take over.

Colorado is 30th in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA, and 21st in OPS against left-handed pitching at Coors Field this season. Additionally, in May, they have the fifth-highest strikeout percentage in the league against lefties at home. That is an excellent matchup for Braxton Garrett, who not only has 16 strikeouts in his last 11 ⅓ innings, but he is also in the 75th percentile in chase rate. The lefty also has a 2.52 ERA on the road with an expected FIP of 2.50.

On the other hand, Miami is 12th in wRC+ and wOBA against lefties on the road with the 9th-lowest strikeout percentage in May. They face a starter in Kyle Freeland, with a 4.50 ERA or higher for the first three innings and whose expected FIP is up to 4.54. I think Miami is in an excellent spot to go into the latter stages of this game with a lead.