29.06.2023

Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox Game Preview and Pick

One of the best stories in baseball up to this point in the season has been the success of the Miami Marlins. Over their last ten games, the team is boasting a 7-3 record, and with a win tonight, they will have gone into Fenway Park and swept the Red Sox. We’ll preview the game before going over why I’ll be targeting a play on the F5 total.

Game Preview

Braxton Garrett has been a strikeout machine as of late, and although he did not have the putaway pitch working last night, he was able to pitch five innings and allow just one earned run. While Garrett was keeping the Red Sox off the board, his offense did not truly start to swing it well until the rain delay ended. Following the delay, Miami was able to score three runs in the sixth, and Jazz Chisholm was able to tack on another with a home run in the 8th. Ultimately Miami would come away with a 6-2 victory.

Miami will send another lefty to the mound tonight, as Jesus Luzardo will take the ball for his 17th start. Luzardo is fresh off an impressive outing in which he threw seven scoreless innings and struck out nine. Those seven shutout innings lowered the lefties' ERA down to 3.77 across 90.7 innings.

Luzardo and his strong strikeout stuff will square off with a Red Sox lineup tonight that has scored just three runs through the first two games of this series. In last night’s loss, Boston was able to outhit the Marlins, but aside from a Rafael Devers home run in the fourth and Jarren Duran RBI single in the ninth, the Red Sox hits would never amount to anything else.

Boston decided to go with an opener last night, but tonight they will have their young flamethrower Bryan Bello on the mound. The right-hander has flashed a lot of potential this season that should have Red Sox fans excited about his future. Over Bello’s last ten starts, he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of them, which has him pitching to a 3.27 ERA on the year.

Pick for the Game

Boston has been a team that seems to only perform well at home this season, but they have not lived up to that so far this series. With a talented young lefty on the mound who has been throwing well, I think it could be tough for Boston to turn it around on offense this series. For my play in this one, I’ll be taking the F5 under of 5, which is priced at (-130) on BetMGM.

Despite their success this season and recently, the Marlins are still hitting .232 with a .695 OPS against right-handed pitching on the road. Since the start of June, the Marlins matchup tonight, Bryan Bello is pitching to a 2.36 ERA with an opponent batting average of .194. Additionally, Bello has a 3.24 ERA and a .226 batting average the first time through the order, so he is Boston’s best chance to slow this Marlins offense.

The Red Sox lineup enters tonight ranked 15th in wRC+ and 21st in BAbip against left-handed pitching at home over the last month. Opponents are hitting .183 against Luzardo since the start of June, and the first time through the order, the Marlins starter is currently boasting a 1.47 FIP. Overall, I think this game will be a pitcher’s duel until the bullpens get involved.