30.05.2023

May 30th MLB Prop Plays

There are 15 games set to take place in the MLB tonight, so there are plenty of prop betting opportunities on the board. Here we’ll take a look at my two best plays in terms of props for tonight’s slate.

Prop Pick #1: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)

Being in the same division, Marte and the Diamondbacks have often faced the Rockies' pitching staff. One of those pitchers they face multiple times a year is lefty Kyle Freeland, and no one in the D-Backs lineup has his number more than Marte. In 37 at-bats against him, Marte has recorded 12 hits which is a .324 average.

Those 12 hits include six singles, four doubles, and two home runs, so he is not just finding holes in the defense he is driving the ball all over the yard. Marte’s average exit velocity against Freeland is 97.2 MPH, and his expected numbers against the lefty show his success against him will likely continue.

Marte has an expected batting average of .371, an expected slugging percentage of .588, and an expected wOBA of .450, so as long as he is in the NL West and hitting against Freeland, he’ll likely find himself on base quite a few more times. The switch-hitting second baseman is also heading into this game swinging a hot bat, while Freeland has a 4.71 ERA in road starts this season.

Over his last ten games, Marte is averaging 2.1 total bases per game, as he has exceeded today’s total in six of those ten games. The Arizona second baseman has also recorded at least one hit in nine of his last ten games, including eight straight. Between how he is currently seeing the ball and his success against Freeland, I expect a big night from Marte.

Prop Pick #2: José Ramírez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)

Sticking with another total bases prop, we turn our attention to an AL matchup between the Guardians and Orioles. José Ramírez is another guy that has seen the opposing starter exceptionally well in his career, as he is hitting .364 off Gibson in 33 at-bats. Ramírez has eight singles, three doubles, and a home run off the big right-hander, and he, too, has been swinging the bat well recently.

Ramírez has gone over 1.5 total bases in three straight games and in six out of his last ten. Additionally, the slugger is in the midst of a four-game hitting streak, so no matter who he has faced as of late, he’s found success. To make matters even better for Ramírez backers, he has hit better on the road this season, with a .281 average and wRC+ of 137.

Statcast has Ramírez projected with an expected batting average of .277 against Gibson, which isn’t bad for starters, but with other factors, I think that number is even higher. Gibson has an xFIP of 5.02 in May and has a .337 BAbip against left-handed hitters at home, so I think this is another ideal spot to target.