17.03.2023

March 17th NBA Prop Report

The NBA may be taking a back seat to March Madness for the time being, but there is money that can still be made in NBA prop markets. We’ll break down the plays I’ll be targeting across the eight-game slate tonight and why they are good spots to target them all in.

Bet #1: Trey Murphy Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made (-140)

Any time the market lines up to take advantage of a player against the Houston Rockets' defense, I suggest jumping on it. Over his last ten games, Murphy is averaging three made three-pointers per game and is attempting 7.3 a game. The second-year player is shooting 40% from deep on the season, and after going 4-7 from deep in his most recent game, he has a more than ideal matchup tonight against the Rockets.

Since the All-Star break, the Houston Rockets are allowing the most three-pointers made per game, with an average of 16. Also, since the return from break, opponents are shooting 39.6% from deep which has Houston ranked 28th in the league in that category.

When these two teams last met back in January, the Pelicans knocked down 14 threes in the game while shooting 37%. Even though New Orleans is not a team that generally attempts a lot of threes per game, they attempted 38 in that matchup with Houston, so they will look to continue to expose the Rockets’ inability to run shooters off the line.

Murphy leads the team in threes made per game over the last month, and his output and usage recently, I expect him to lead the charge tonight against Houston. New Orleans ended with an 11-point win in the last meeting between the two sides by increasing their three-point shooting numbers, and I think tonight will be a similar story.

Bet #2: Nikola Vucevic Over 11.5 Rebounds (-110)

The Chicago Bulls big man has been a force to be reckoned with on the boards recently, and I think he has an ideal matchup to continue that pace tonight. Vucevic is averaging 11.2 rebounds per game over his past ten games, but he has gone over his prop total in the past three games, pulling down a combined 41 boards in that span.

Chicago will have an ideal rebounding matchup tonight against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that has allowed the third most rebounds per game since the All-Star break. In that span, opponents are averaging 47.7 total rebounds per game, which is perfect for a Bulls team that is a much better-rebounding team at home this season. In general, Chicago has been rebounding at a high level in the second half of the season, with the 11th-best rebounding percentage in that span.

As I mentioned before, Vucevic has been playing at a dominant pace down low recently, but on top of that, he has been statistically better at home. The big man is averaging 11.7 rebounds a game at home this season, and I think he can outrebound Rudy Gobert tonight, who is coming off a game in which he had just six total boards.