17.02.2023

Los Angeles Kings @ Anaheim Ducks Game Preview and Prop Pick

One of the five NHL games on the schedule tonight will feature the Los Angeles Kings making the short trip to Anaheim to take on the Ducks. We’ll preview the game before going over my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

In the five games the Anaheim Ducks have played since the All-Star break, they have gone 1-4. Anaheim was one of the worst statistical defensive teams in the NHL in the first half of the season, and they did not come into the second half looking much better. In fact, the Ducks have allowed 20 goals to be scored over their last three games.

The Ducks' most recent game ended in a loss at home to the Buffalo Sabres, in which they lost 7-3 and allowed Buffalo to get off 44 shots on goal. Anaheim is ranked dead last in the league in shots against per game, with an average of 39.1, and they have allowed exactly that number or more since the All-Star break.

Anaheim has shown some improvement since the break, but it has been on the offensive end. Across their last three games, the Ducks have scored a combined eight goals, so for a team ranked 31st in goals per game, that is a slight improvement. They will be in for a challenge tonight though since the Kings have only allowed two goals in two games and just held Buffalo to just 29 shots on goal.

Los Angeles had some defensive lapses prior to the break and ended up being ranked 22nd in goals allowed per game, so it’s a positive sign that goalie Phoenix Copley is 2-0 with a shutout already following the days off. There is a chance that Jonathan Quick will be net tonight, and I’m sure Kings fans are hoping he can come out like Copley, especially since Quick’s save percentage over his last ten games was .863.

Prop Pick for the Game

For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Adrian Kempe over 3.5 shots on goal at (+105). Over his past ten games, the right-winger is averaging 3.7 shots on goal and has gone over his prop total in eight of those games. Not many people are playing at a higher level than Kempe right now, and after scoring five goals in the last two games, I expect him to come out aggressive again tonight.

I think getting this prop at plus money is excellent value, especially since the Ducks are ranked last in goals and shots on goal per game this season. John Gibson will likely be back in goal for Anaheim tonight, and over his past ten games, he has a .896 save percentage, and in his last two games, opponents have gotten off 59 and 39 shots on goal for a total of 13 goals.

On the season, Los Angeles is ranked 12th in shots per game, and after scoring 11 goals in their first two games since the break, I think tonight is a good spot for them to continue their offensive momentum, with Kempe leading the charge.