11.04.2023

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants Game Preview and Pick

The first game of the series between the interdivisional rivals went to the Dodgers as they were dominant on the mound and in the batter's box. We’ll preview the second game of the series before going over which team I’ll be backing.

Game Preview

Mookie Betts and the Dodgers jumped on Logan Webb and the Giants last night from the first pitch of the game. After Betts’ leadoff homerun, the Dodgers scored nine runs in the game while Julio Urias threw six innings and struck out nine Giants hitters. Max Muncy was a huge factor in the game as well as he hit two homers and racked up seven RBIs.

The unfortunate part for the Giants is they will now face Dustin May, who has been highly impressive to start the season. Through two starts this year, May has thrown 13 innings with a .69 ERA and just five hits allowed. The young right-hander faced the Giants late last season, throwing five innings without allowing a hit and striking out four. Even with that start, most of the Giants hitters do not have a lot of experience against May, as the most plate appearances three guys have against him is five.

Up to this point in the season, the Giants are 16th in the MLB in team batting average and 14th in average runs per game, but they are 3rd in total home runs. Their best offensive performance of the year came with tonight’s starter Alex Wood on the mound, but it may be tough to supply him with the same amount of run support tonight.

Wood has made just one start so far this year, and he got a no-decision as he threw just three innings. Across those three innings, Wood allowed six hits, and out of the three runs scored, only one was an earned run. Most of the Dodgers lineup has faced Wood a large number of times in their career, with Freddie Freeman leading the team with 31 career plate appearances.

Pick for the Game

The Dodgers are currently priced at (-154) on the moneyline, and I’ll be backing them for my play in this one. Most of the Dodgers lineup has seen Alex Wood well in their career, especially Mookie Betts, who has three career home runs off of him. Wood is also in the 35th percentile in xSLG and the 36th percentile in whiff percentage, so in his limited innings, he has not flashed anything that I think will bother the Dodgers lineup.

Dustin May is a tough pitcher to face with limited to no plate appearances against him, so I think the Giants lineup may struggle to produce runs again tonight. May is in the 75th percentile in barrel percentage and 68th percentile in chase rate, which could be a problem for a Giants team that has struck out more than any other MLB team up to this point in the season with 115 strikeouts.

Overall, the Dodgers will have the edge in multiple facets of tonight’s game for the second straight night. If San Francisco decides to pull Wood early again tonight, the Dodgers still have the advantage since the Giants' bullpen has the third-highest ERA in the league.