09.05.2023

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview and Pick

Over their last ten games, the Dodgers have a record of 8-2, but one of those two losses came last night in game one of this series with Milwaukee. We’ll preview tonight’s matchup before going over which team I’ll be backing on the moneyline in this one.

Game Preview

Last night’s game looked like a pitcher's duel through the first couple of innings until the Brewers put up a three-spot in the fifth inning. After being scoreless through the first four innings, the game ended with a total of 12 runs being scored, with Milwaukee putting up nine. Joey Weimer and Willy Adames both left the yard for the Brewers as they combined for seven RBIs.

Getting the start today for Milwaukee will be left-hander Eric Lauer, as he will be making his seventh start of the year. In 30.7 innings of work up to this point, Lauer has pitched to a 4.40 ERA with 29 strikeouts and 14 walks. In his most recent outing against the Rockies, the lefty was taken out of the game after 4 ⅔ innings with four unearned runs on the board.

Lauer will face a Dodgers lineup in the top ten in both homerun and hard-hit percentages this season. In last night’s game, the Dodgers finished with six hits, and five of them went for extra bases, including Chris Taylor’s sixth home run, which came in a pinch-hit appearance. The Dodgers lineup may have racked up a few extra-base hits, but their struggles on the road are still evident as they are hitting .202 in road games with a .698 OPS.

Pitching today for Los Angeles will be veteran right-hander Noah Syndergaard. In 31.3 innings this season, Syndergaard has put up a 6.32 ERA with 21 strikeouts and four walks. The right-hander secured his first win of the season in his last start, throwing 5 ⅓ innings with no strikeouts and three earned runs allowed.

Pick for the Game

Milwaukee is currently priced at (+104) on the moneyline, and I’ll be backing them in this one. The Brewers have won five straight games against teams with winning records, and even though he may be struggling a bit this season, the Brewers are rolling out the one thing that has given the Dodgers trouble, which is a lefty starter.

Los Angeles is hitting .193 with a .671 OPS against lefties this season, and mixing that with their struggles on the road is a recipe for a slow day at the plate. Eric Lauer is not an ideal starter to be backing, but with the Dodgers' struggles against lefties on the road, I think he can at least keep them in the game. The Brewers' bullpen also has the highest left-on-base percentage in the Majors currently, so I like them to hold a lead or a tie if needed.

The Brewers have an ideal matchup tonight, facing a righty since they are hitting .253 against right-handed pitching with a .742 OPS. Noah Syndergaard is also in the 16th percentile in expected batting average and 29th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Milwaukee showed they could do it last night, but I think they can find success against the Dodgers bullpen, especially since they are allowing the third-highest BAbip amongst bullpens.