07.09.2023

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins Game Preview and Pick

Miami is holding onto the final NL Wild Card spot with multiple teams nipping at their heels. With the pressure of a playoff race at an all-time high, the Marlins have remained cool and rattled six wins in a row, giving them a chance to sweep the Dodgers tonight with a win. We’ll preview the series finale between the two teams before going over my play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

The last time the Dodgers played the Marlins, they held their offense at bay for two of the three games, but that has not been the case this time around. After last night’s 11-4 loss, the Dodgers have now allowed 17 runs through the series' first two games. While their pitching staff was struggling last night, the Dodgers offense went missing, with their only true offensive highlights coming from home runs by Jason Heyward and James Outman.

As the Dodgers look to avoid getting swept, they will send young right-hander Ryan Pepiot to the mound for his second start of the season. In his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, Pepiot worked five scoreless innings while allowing just two hits on the way to his first win of the year. The right-hander’s first outing of the year was a relief appearance against Miami in which he allowed one earned run over five innings.

Pepiot will face a much different Marlins lineup tonight, as they have scored six or more runs over their past six games. In last night’s winning effort, the Marlins offense found the hit column 13 times, with eight of those hits going for extra bases. Three hits would also leave the yard as Jazz Chisolm Jr., Jesus Sanchez, and Joey Wendle drove in eight of the teams' runs with their homers.

With a chance to secure their 7th straight win tonight, Miami will have lefty Braxton Garrett on the bump for his 27th start. Garrett picked up his 8th win of the season during his last outing by throwing six innings and allowing just one earned run. The left-hander did take the loss on August 19th against this same Dodgers team he will face tonight, as he allowed three earned runs on five hits across six innings.

Pick for the Game

The Dodgers F5 moneyline is currently priced at (-124), and I’ll be backing them for my play. There is no denying that Miami has been strong as of late, but Los Angeles has hit lefties well as of late and has a starter on the mound who stimied the Marlins lineup the last time he faced them.

Dating back to August 7th, the Dodgers lineup is hitting .277 and ranks 11th in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitching on the road. The last time they faced Garrett, the Dodgers' offense was able to hit two home runs off him and finished the game with ten hard-hit balls, so they seem to see the ball well out of his hand. On top of that, Garrett is in the 30th percentile in expected ERA and 10th percentile in expected batting average.

Even though Miami has been impressive offensively, they still rank 21st in wRC+, 20th in wOBA, and 17th in OPS against right-handed pitching at home over the past month, so it could be difficult for them to maintain their current level of success. Miami also struggled to square up Ryan Pepiot the last time they faced him, as they only registered two hard-hit balls on 12 balls hit into play.