mlb
28.09.2023

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies Game Preview and Pick

The Dodgers have long clinched their division and spot in the postseason, but that has not stopped them from scoring runs at an impressive rate. With a chance to secure yet another series win with a victory tonight, we’ll preview their game against the Rockies before going over why I’ll be targeting their F5 team total.

Game Preview

Los Angeles opened their four-game series with the Rockies by scoring just one run, but they have since scored a combined 19 runs over the past two games, including their 8-2 win yesterday. Like he has all season, Freddie Freeman provided some of that offense by blasting a three-run home run, while rookie James Outman also had a big day, going 3-4 with a double and home run.

To close out the series on the mound, LA seems to be going with more of a bullpen game, with Ryan Yarbrough getting the start. In his ten appearances with the team, including one start, the right-hander has not thrown more than 4.2 innings. In his most recent outing, Yarbrough threw 3.2 innings in relief and allowed two earned runs on five hits, which gives him a 3.12 ERA in 34.7 innings with the team.

Yarbrough and whichever relievers come in after him will be taking on a Rockies team that is 1-9 over their last ten games and has failed to score more than three runs in seven of those games. In their losing effort last night, the Rockies would pick up seven hits, including home runs by Brendan Rodgers and Sean Bouchard, but they would also strikeout 13 times.

Making his last start of the year for Colorado will be right-hander Chris Flexen. The veteran has struggled in his time with the Rockies, pitching to a 6.46 ERA in 54.3 innings. In Flexen’s last start against the Cubs, he took a no-decision after allowing two earned runs over five innings. That outing was just the second time over his last five in which he allowed fewer than three runs.

Pick for the Game

The Dodgers F5 team total is currently set at 3.5, and I’ll be taking the over at (-110) for my play. Los Angeles has crushed right-handed pitching all season, but especially recently, and with them averaging 3.10 runs per game in the first five innings on the road, which is the second-highest in the league, I think they can get the scoring started early tonight.

Over the past 30 days, Los Angeles has been hitting .288 and ranks 4th in hard hit percentage and 3rd in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers also have the 7th highest fly ball percentage in that span, which is what you want when playing at Coors Field.

The Dodgers matchup, Chris Flexen is currently in the 33rd percentile in hard hit percentage, 5th percentile in xERA, and 3rd percentile in expected batting average. Not only does Flexen also have a 5.64 FIP when pitching at home, but he also has an above-league-average flyball rate (24.2%) and pull rate (38.8%).

Recap

  • Los Angeles Dodgers F5 Team Total Over 3.5 (-110)

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