08.08.2023

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview and Prop Pick

If the time to hit the panic button has not come yet, it might be close for the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they are entering this series with the first-place Dodgers amid a six-game losing streak. With the team in desperate need of a win, we’ll preview the opening game of the series before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting.

Game Preview

Paul Sewald’s Diamondbacks tenure started off on a high note in his first appearance, as he struck out the side on 12 pitches. His next outing, however, will not have fans rushing to purchase his jersey during their homestand, as the newly acquired closer blew his first save opportunity in an Arizona uniform on Sunday. By allowing three runs in the ninth, including a game-tying and walk-off home run, the Diamondbacks are now 0-6 in August and two games back of a Wild Card spot.

Following an off day yesterday, the D-Backs will welcome the first-place Dodgers into town for a quick two-game series. Taking the mound for Arizona tonight will be young right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, fresh off the best outing of his MLB career. The Bellarmine University product worked seven innings against the Giants and allowed just one run on two hits with seven strikeouts. Unfortunately for him, Arizona was shut out in the game, so he still took the loss.

Pfaadt showed the strikeout potential that many talent evaluators have raved about in his last outing, but the one thing that has hurt him at the big-league level is the long ball. The right-hander has allowed 14 home runs in 44.3 innings, which sets up a tough matchup for him tonight against a daunting Dodgers lineup. LA will enter this series after taking three out of four from the Padres and scoring eight or more runs in each of those wins.

In the series' final game last night, the Dodgers came away with a 13-7 win, in which they had 15 hits. The Dodgers will have lefty Julio Urias on the mound tonight as they look for their third straight series win. The lefty picked up his 8th win during his last outing by giving his club five shutout innings against the A’s.

Prop Pick

Julio Urias’ hits allowed total is currently set at 5.5, and for my play, I’ll be taking the over, which is priced at (+100). The lefty might be coming off a strong outing, but the key here is that he was on his home mound, which is the only place he’s found consistent success this season. Pitching on the road has been a struggle for Urias, and taking on a desperate team in need of a win makes this a potentially tough spot for the Dodgers starter.

Urias has made eight starts on the road this season, and he’s allowed six or more hits in six of them. This is unsurprising when you see that he is pitching to a 7.88 ERA and 6.30 FIP in 37.2 road innings. Opponents are hitting .309 against lefty when he’s on the road, which has led to a 2.39 HR/9 and an 8.4% decrease in strikeout percentage as opposed to when he’s at home.

The lefty will face an Arizona lineup tonight that is hitting .267 against left-handed pitching at home over the past month and just picked up eight hits against a lefty starter in their most recent game. With the Diamondbacks in desperate need of a win and Urias’ road troubles, I think this is a good prop market to target the over in.