The second game of the TNT doubleheader tonight will feature the Los Angeles Clippers making the short trip to Golden State to take on the Warriors. We’ll preview the game before reviewing my best prop play for the action.
In their three games since the return from the All-Star break, the Clippers have yet to find the win column. Through those games, the Clippers have put up a NET rating of -4.9, which ranks 21st in the league in that span.
Their defense is a big reason for that ranking, but it is tough to have a good defensive rating when you’re first game back from break is a 176-175 loss. The Clippers' most recent loss was on Tuesday night to the Timberwolves, as they fell 108-101 in that game.
That game marked their lowest scoring total since January 29th, and a big reason for that was a lack of bench scoring. Despite having four of the five starters finish the game in double-figures, the Clippers bench combined for just 25 points, with 13 of them coming from Norman Powell.
When these two teams last met on February 14th, the Clippers were able to pick up a 132-124 win. The Warriors' defense looks much improved since that loss, though, as they rank 10th in the league in defensive efficiency rating since the return from the break.
In their four games back, Golden State is 3-1 and has held three of their four opponents to 105 points or less. Overall, the Warriors are 7th in the league in NET rating since the return to action, which is a scary sight for the league since they are still without Steph Curry. In large part due to Klay Thompson’s recent scoring streak, the Warriors rank 13th in effective field goal percentage in that same span and are coming off a game in which they shot 54% from the field.
For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Jordan Poole over 4.5 assists (-130). Over his past ten games, Poole is averaging 5.8 assists and has gone over his total in six of those ten games. Since the return from the break, 65.5% of the Warriors' field goals have been assisted, which is the third-highest total in the league in that span. Poole and the Warriors also have an ideal matchup to keep that percentage up tonight.
Over the past five games, the Clippers are allowing the second most assists per game in the league. Opponents are averaging 29.6 assists per game in that span against Los Angeles, and in their most recent matchup, they allowed Golden State to dish out 28 total assists, with six of them coming from Poole.
In games in which Steph Curry does not play this season, Poole is averaging five assists per game and has exceeded the 4.5 assists mark in 14 of those 24 games. With how the Clippers' defense has looked from the break, and how efficiently the Warriors are converting assisted attempts, I think this is an excellent spot to target Poole.
Jordan Poole Over 4.5 Assists (-130)