12.06.2023

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers Game Preview and Prop Pick

Following their series loss to another top team in the AL, the Texas Rangers will return home tonight to host the LA Angels. Both teams have gone 6-4 over their past ten games, and this four-game set gives the Angels the opportunity to climb up the AL West divisional standings or fall further behind Texas and Houston. We’ll preview game one of the series before going over my best prop play.

Game Preview

Despite losing their five-game win streak, the Los Angeles Angels still took two games of their three-game series with the Mariners over the weekend. The Angels' offense jumped on opposing starter Logan Gilbert early yesterday, as they knocked him out of the game in three innings by racking up seven runs on eight hits. For the game, the Angels recorded nine runs on 13 hits, including two home runs off the bat of Zach Neto and one off the bat of Taylor Ward.

With another big divisional series set to begin tonight, the Angels will send left-hander Tyler Anderson to the mound for his 12th start of the season. Anderson has thrown 57.7 innings up to this point and is pitching to a 5.62 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 28 walks. The lefty will enter tonight off a win, in which he went five innings with five strikeouts and four earned runs allowed.

The last time Anderson faced the Rangers, he took a no-decision after five innings and three runs allowed. Tonight he’ll face a Texas lineup that I’m sure is stoked not to have to deal with the Rays' pitching staff anymore. Aside from scoring eight runs on Saturday, the Rangers scored three runs in each of the other two games, including their loss yesterday.

On the bump for Texas, tonight will be right-hander Dane Dunning to make his seventh start. Dunning has been excellent for the Rangers no matter what role he’s been in, as he has a 2.52 ERA in 53.7 innings of work, to go along with 33 strikeouts and 13 walks. The righty allowed three home runs in 5 ⅔ innings in his last outing, but he still managed to come away with the win.

Prop Pick

The Rangers may have lost their most recent series, but their offense is still among the best in the league and has been dominant at home. With that said, for my prop play in this one, I’ll be taking Tyler Anderson to have under 4.5 strikeouts, which is priced at (-141). The lefty is averaging 3.45 strikeouts per game this season, which has him in the 8th percentile in strikeout percentage.

In 31.2 road innings, the lefty has struggled with a 5.40 ERA with 19 strikeouts. That gives him a K/9 on the road of 5.40, and he is only averaging 15.5 outs recorded per game this season. With his struggles on the road with getting strikeouts or outs in general, tonight’s matchup is not ideal for him, facing a Rangers lineup with the lowest strikeout percentage in the league over the last month against lefties at home.

With their 9% strikeout percentage and 173 wRC+ over the last month, the Rangers have been consistently destroying opposing lefty’s stat lines. With Anderson’s batting average allowed on the road being .292 and his strikeout percentage at 13.4%, I think it’ll be a short outing for the veteran.