25.08.2023

Los Angeles Angels @ New York Mets Game Preview and Pick

The hits keep coming for the Los Angeles Angels, and tonight, they will take their four-game losing streak into New York to take on the Mets. We’ll preview the opening game of that series before going over which side I’ll be backing on the F5 run-line.

Game Preview

With the news of Shohei Ohtani’s elbow flooding news channels everywhere, the Angels season has taken another terrible turn that I don’t think the best scriptwriters in the world could come up with. While the injury news was circulating, the Angels were on the field getting swept by the Reds in a series that would culminate in a 7-3 loss on Wednesday. The only real noteworthy offensive highlight for the Angels was Nolan Schanuel’s first career RBI.

In tonight's first game of their nine-game road trip, the Angels will have lefty Patrick Sandoval on the mound. Sandoval has struggled over his last two outings, taking a loss in both starts and allowing at least five runs in each of them. On August 14th against the Rangers, the lefty was pulled after 2.2 innings with six walks and five runs (four earned), and in his most recent outing, he lasted 4.2 innings while allowing six runs (two earned) on seven hits.

Desperately needing a bounce-back start, Sandoval will take on a Mets offense tonight that was shut out in their series finale with the Braves. In their 10-0 loss, which cost them the series, New York registered just three hits while striking out 14 times. Overall, though, the Mets have swung the bat well over their last ten games, scoring four or more runs in seven of those games.

As New York looks to snap a two-game losing slide, Kodai Senga will take the ball for them for his 23rd start. The rookie has been phenomenal as of late, picking up three straight wins and averaging just 1.8 earned runs allowed per game over his last ten starts. In his most recent outing against St. Louis, Senga allowed just one earned run on two hits over seven innings.

Pick for the Game

The Mets F5 run-line of (-.5) is currently priced at (-105), and I’ll be backing them for my play. Senga gives the Mets a nice advantage on the mound, and even though they were shut out in their most recent outing, I think New York’s offense can bounce back tonight at home against a struggling starter.

Over the last month, the Mets are hitting .263 and rank 8th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against left-handed pitching at home. That’s a great stat line to see for Mets backers since their matchup is in the 39th percentile in xERA/xwOBA and 29th percentile in expected batting average. Sandoval also enters tonight with a 4.77 xFIP on the road and 4.74 xFIP in the month of August.

The Angels offense may have a tough time giving Sandoval run support tonight as well. LA is hitting .217 and ranks 24th in OPS and 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the road over the past 30 days. This is an excellent matchup for Senga since he is in the 81st percentile in xSLG, 71st percentile in expected batting average, and has a 3.29 FIP at home this season.