The red-hot Lakers head into Toronto tonight to take on the Raptors. We’ll preview the matchup and go over how you can take advantage of the recent point total line movement.
The Lakers are 7-3 over their last ten games, but last night, they lost to the Cavs and lost Anthony Davis midway through the game due to flu-like symptoms. It is unclear whether or not Davis will be able to play tonight in Toronto; along with Davis, there is a chance LeBron James won’t play since this is the second day of a back-to-back.
Before Davis came down with flu-like symptoms, he had been playing at an MVP-caliber level and was carrying this Lakers offense to a 116.9 offensive rating which is sixth best in the NBA over the last ten games. For reference, the Lakers’ offensive rating on the season is ranked 22nd in the league, so there has been a drastic improvement on that end of the floor from the whole team, not just Davis.
Los Angeles has also recently stepped up their play on the defensive end, with a top-10 defensive rating over that 10-game span. Unsurprisingly the defense has also been anchored by Davis, who leads the team in both blocks and steals per game.
Toronto has been relatively inconsistent as of late, going 5-5 over their last ten games and putting up a NET rating of -.4. Offensively, over that span, the Raptors had an offensive efficiency of 110.7, which is 22nd in the league. Pascal Siakim leads the team offensively in points, rebounds, and assists.
Defense has been the strength of this Raptors team all season, allowing an average of just 109.8 points and holding opponents to a 48.4% field goal percentage.
The point total for this game opened at 225.5 and has jumped all the way up to 230 in most sportsbooks. This number has gotten a bit too high, so my play for this game is under 230. I have a hard time believing Davis or James will be playing tonight, so between a depleted Lakers team and an average Raptors offense, the under has a ton of value.
The over is 4-8 when the Raptors play at home, and in those games, the Raptors are 8-4 ATS, so this shows Toronto is comfortable playing in low-scoring defensive-minded games much like this one should be. Toronto is not the type of team to bring a game over a point total strictly by their offense, and it looks like tonight’s Lakers offense wouldn’t be able to either.
If Davis and Lebron don’t play, the Lakers will need to rely on Lonnie Walker and Russell Westbrook for scoring, which is just not enough to bring this game over 230 points.
Under 230 (-110)