25.08.2023

Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners Game Preview and Pick

Seattle saw an eight-game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday, but now they get to return to their home ballpark after a ten-game roadstand. When Seattle left for Kansas City on August 14th, they were two games back of the final Wild Card spot, and now, with the Royals in town to play them 11 days later, Seattle holds the second Wild Card spot. We’ll preview tonight’s game before going over my play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

Kansas City will come into this weekend's series after losing what can best be described as the AL basement series. The Royals' three-game series with the A’s was a battle between the teams with the worst records in the American League, and Kansas City opened the series by losing two straight. Ultimately, the Royals would avoid getting swept on Wednesday after coming away with a 4-0 win that was powered by a dominant start by Cole Ragans and home runs by Bobby Witt Jr. and Dairon Blanco.

The Royals' nine-game road trip culminates this weekend against a Mariners team they lost three out of four games to on August 14th-17th. Getting the ball for them to start this series is right-hander Brady Singer, who was impressive in his last outing against the Mariners. The right-hander would work 7.1 innings and allow two earned runs while picking up eight strikeouts.

Singer would not find that same success in his most recent outing against the Cubs, as he was forced to exit the game after 3.2 innings with six runs on the board. Getting back on track and keeping the Mariners lineup at bay will be a tall task for Singer tonight since the Mariners are coming off a three-game series in which they scored 24 total runs.

Even in their 5-4 loss on Wednesday, Seattle looked down and out all game but managed to score four runs in the last three innings. As they look to start a new winning streak tonight, Seattle will have Bryce Miller on the bump. The young righty has given his club three straight outings in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs in at least five innings of work. Most recently, he recorded 6.1 scoreless innings in a win over the Astros.

Pick for the Game

The Mariners F5 run-line of (-.5) is currently priced at (-120), and I’ll be backing them for my play. Seattle is 7-3 ATS on the F5 run-line in their past ten games, and with how their offense has been performing, I don’t see them being shut down by the same pitcher twice in the same month. On top of that, Bryce Miller has dominated two impressive lineups over his last two outings, so he should be able to carry that momentum into tonight.

Seattle’s lineup is hitting .255 and ranks 12th in SLG and 11th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home since July 25th. While Brady Singer did find success against them recently, he is still in the 26th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, 14th percentile in expected batting average, and 1st percentile in hard-hit percentage. The Royals starter also has a .320 batting average against in 53.1 road innings this season.

Bryce Miller will face a Royals lineup that is hitting .247 and ranks 15th in wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road. Kansas City also doesn’t have the advantage of seeing Miller pitch within the last two weeks, so they get to face him and his .206 batting average against at home for the first time.