mlb
07.06.2023

Kansas City Royals @ Miami Marlins Game Preview and Pick: Back Miami to Sweep

Over the last ten games, only two teams have an 8-2 record, one being the first-place Texas Rangers and the other being the Miami Marlins. With last night’s win, Miami is one win away from securing a series sweep over the Royals before starting their next road trip. We’ll preview the final game of the series before going over my play for the action.

Game Preview

The recipe for success was simple last night for Miami, put up a big inning and let their young left-hander cruise on the mound. Miami recorded seven hits in the game, two of which came from the hottest hitter in baseball, Luiz Arreaz, while the other notable ones came off the bats of Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz. That was all the run support Jesus Luzardo needed, as he racked up eight strikeouts and allowed one earned run in seven innings.

With Miami looking to close out the series, they will send another young starter to the mound in Edward Cabrera. Across 12 starts and 58 innings, the right-handed flame thrower has a 4.50 ERA with 76 strikeouts and 36 walks. Cabrera was dominant in his last outing, throwing six innings with ten punchouts, all while allowing no runs and four hits.

Tonight, the Marlins starter will face a Royals offense that could not build off their six-run performance in game one, ending last night's game with just five hits and 11 strikeouts. Nick Pratto registered the team’s only extra-base hit and run scored by doubling in the sixth inning and scoring on a wild pitch. Last night’s performance marked the sixth game over their past ten, in which KC has scored three or fewer runs.

As they look for a happy flight to Baltimore for their next series, the Royals will turn to Jordan Lyles to get the start tonight. In what has been one of the tougher seasons for a starting pitcher up to this point, Lyles is fresh off his best start of the year. The righty threw five innings with eight strikeouts and one earned run allowed in a no-decision against the Rockies. With that said his ERA on the season after 66.7 innings is still 6.89.

Pick for the Game

I started off this series backing the Marlins on the run line, and I’ll be dipping back into that well tonight for my play. Miami’s run-line of (-1.5) is priced at (+118), and not only are they 8-2 straight up over their last ten games, but they are also 8-2 ATS. The Marlins' offense is clicking on all levels behind the consistent production of Luiz Arreaz, and I don’t see that changing tonight against Jordan Lyles.

It’s easy to look at Lyles last start and think he may have found something, but at the end of the day, it was just an ideal matchup. The righty has been slightly better at home and faced a Rockies lineup that is 16th in wRC+ against righties on the road. Now, the Royals starter faces a Marlins team that is 3rd in wRC+ and 4th in wOBA and OPS against righties at home.

Miami’s starter Edward Cabrera has an ideal matchup tonight and is projected to build off his most recent start. The right-hander is in the 82nd percentile in expected batting average, 71st percentile in expected slugging, and 86th percentile in strikeout percentage. With a 2.77 home ERA, I like his chances to turn in a quality start against a Royals lineup that is ranked 30th in wRC+ and 29th in OPS against righties on the road this past month.

Recap

  • Miami Marlins (-1.5)(+118)

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