There are two weeks left in the college football regular season and as we creep closer to bowl season there are still plenty of teams left fighting to become bowl eligible. One of those teams is the UL Monroe Warhawks and although their chances might be slim to upset conference foe Troy I still think they can cover as the underdogs. We’ll preview the game and then get into why you should jump on the Warhawks at their current number.
The Troy Trojans sit in second place in the Sun Belt Conference and are looking to clinch an opportunity to play in the conference championship game. The Trojans have an 8-2 record and enter this weekend on a seven-game win streak. A big reason why this Troy team has been so successful is their defense.
Tied for eighth in the country this Troy defense is only allowing an average of 16.7 points per game. The Trojans have held their opponents to an average of 327.7 yards per game which is tied for 18th in all of college football. If it weren’t for this stellar defense, this team would not be sitting in second place.
Offensively the Trojans have gotten the job done but they haven’t been impressive when it comes to scoring. They are only averaging 19.4 points per game and neither their rushing nor passing attack has jumped off the screen with efficiency. Running back DK Billingsly leads the team with 4 touchdowns on the season, while quarterback Gunnar Watson has thrown for 9 touchdowns while also throwing 9 interceptions.
The ULM Warhawks' defense is nowhere near the level of Troy’s defense in fact the Warhawks are allowing an average of 39.1 points per game, however, their offense has shown they can put up a big number on the scoreboard.
Quarterback Chander Rogers has thrown for 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions but the Warhawks like to rely on running back Malik Jackson to lead the way for them. Jackson has 454 rush yards and 6 touchdowns.
It might seem strange to be so sold on betting against a team on a seven-game win streak but the number they have to cover is not one I’m willing to lay points with. Right now on BetMGM sportsbook, the Trojans are favored by -15.5 points, and despite a 7-3 record ATS I don’t think Troy has the ability to cover this number.
It’s important to jump on ULM at +15.5 quickly though as this number is starting to go down in a couple of sportsbooks. Over Troy’s seven-game winning streak five games were decided by only one possession and with the way their offense is playing it would be a tough task to ask them to win this game by three possessions.
Despite their 5-5 ATS record, the Warhawks have hung tough with conference opponents they’ve been underdogs against. Two of those ATS losses came from Alabama and Texas so excluding those losses the Warhawks have been able to put up points against all other opponents. I think the Warhawks are a great underdog play this weekend and can hang in it with Troy.