An in-state ASUN conference game between Jacksonville and Stetson will be played tonight at 7:00 PM ET. We’ll preview the matchup before going over what betting angle you should consider taking in this one.
Stetson has opened up conference play with a 2-0 record, with their most recent win bringing them above .500 on the season. The Hatters played a non-conference schedule with a rating of +6.45, according to KenPom, which ranks as the 26th hardest non-conference schedule in the country.
The challenging schedule did not make things easy on the Hatters' defense, as they enter tonight with a defensive efficiency rating of 110.4, ranking them 331st out of 363 division one teams. Through 13 games this season, the Hatters have allowed an average of 74.2 points per game while letting opponents shoot an average of 45.5% from the field.
On the other end of the floor, the Stetson offense faces the tall task of counteracting the horrid defense they’ve displayed this season. The Hatters and leading scorer Jalen Blackmon will be in for another tough test tonight as they’ll face a Jacksonville defense that holds opponents to an average of 63.2 points per game and to a 29.5% three-point percentage.
The Dolphins have a defensive efficiency rating of 99.5 on KenPom, and just recently held conference opponent Jacksonville State to just 46 in a game. Jacksonville has the opposite problem as Stetson, as their offense has struggled to produce this season with an offensive efficiency rating that ranks 214th in the county.
Leading scorer Kevion Nolan got off to a great start to the season but has struggled with shooting over the last three games, and in the Dolphins' most recent game, he only managed to score nine points on 37.5% shooting.
The point total for this game opened at 127 but has been bet down to 125.5, where it sits now. For my best bet, I’ll be looking to take advantage of the movement and take the over of 125.5. The over is 7-3 in Stetson games this season, and if they played both conference games at this total, it would be 2-0 in conference play as well.
I think the market may be overreacting to Jacksonville’s most recent game, in which only 108 points were scored, mainly because the over is 5-1 in the Dolphins' last six games in which they allowed 50 points or less to be scored in their previous game.
Jacksonville may not have the best offensive numbers either, but 80% of their possessions end in either a three or a shot at the rim, and with the Hatters below average defense, they should be able to find success on the offensive end.
Offensively for Stetson, they have been shooting above their usual average from the field since conference play started, and Jacksonville has proven they can have defensive lapses. The Dolphins may not be able to force as many turnovers as usual since the Hatters only commit an average of 10.5 turnovers per game, the 16th-lowest average in the country.