07.11.2023

IPFW Mastodons @ Depaul Blue Demons Game Preview and Pick: Blue Demon Domination

College basketball officially tipped off last night with over 120 games played, and as the season rolls into tonight, far fewer games are on the slate. While there may not be 200 schools in action, there are matchups that are still worth the attention of bettors. One of those games features IPFW on the road to play the Depaul Blue Demons, and after a roster overhaul through the portal, I think Depaul is primed to take advantage of a relatively low-point total for the matchup.

Game Preview

IPFW finished their 2022-23 campaign as a middle-of-the-pack team in the Horizon League and with a 17-15 record overall. Entering this season, though, there are some concerns with their roster and the overall scoring depth they have. Last season, IPFW had two players average in double figures in Jarred Godfrey (17.7 PPG) and Bobby Planutis (11.1 PPG), but neither player is a member of the team this season.

The Mastodons also lost two more players that were 3rd and 4th on the team in field goal attempts, so they only have two players on this year's roster that averaged over 5.3 field goal attempts per game. Quinton Morton-Robertson and Anthony Roberts are those players, and for the Mastodons to be competitive on offense this season, head coach Jon Coffman will need those guys to take a big step in their development.

Morton-Robertson and Roberts are both seniors, but they will be surrounded by nine underclassmen this season, so it’s an overall inexperienced group. The young guys on the IPFW roster will be thrown right into the fire tonight against a Depaul team that looks much different than last season. The Blue Demons went 10-23 last year, which prompted Tony Stubblefield to go out and bring in five transfers.

That transfer class included highly touted players like Elijah Fisher from Texas Tech and Mac Etienne from UCLA. Much like the Mastodons, the Blue Demons lost their two leading scorers from last year, but they were replaced with experienced scorers like Chico Carter or talented freshmen like Dramane Camara.

While their offense may feature a more well-rounded group of scoring threats, the question with the Blue Demons is whether or not their defense can improve. Last year, Depaul was ranked 296th in opponent field goal percentage and 332nd in opponent offensive rating.

Pick for the Game

Depaul will start this season as (-11) point favorites, and I’ll be backing them for my play. Currently, on KenPom, the Blue Demons are ranked 113th, while IPFW is ranked 300th. While KenPom ranking isn’t the end-all-be-all, it does show the one-sidedness of this matchup, especially with IPFW losing their two leading scorers.

IPFW was 130th in effective field goal percentage and 179th in offensive rating last season, and those numbers will likely be even worse to start the season until they find someone to carry the load offensively. It’s hard to believe an offense that lost their top four players in terms of usage will be able to offset their mediocre defensive numbers, especially against a team that brought in multiple guys who could go off on any given night.

The Mastodons were 194th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 144th in opponent true shooting percentage last season. If the Blue Demons transfer class can live up to their potential, I think they can take a big step forward offensively, and with the questions around IPFW’s offense mixed with their below-average defense, I think Depaul will be able to pull away from them and build a nice lead.