It’s week 10 of the NFL season and up to this point, both the Colts and Raiders seasons have been utter disappointments. Both teams enter this week on losing streaks and looking to find some sort of momentum on either side of the ball. We’ll break down the game and what the smart betting play might be.
The Indianapolis Colts enter this week with a (3-5-1) record and after last week’s loss to the Patriots, they fired their head coach Frank Reich. Well, instead of elevating someone on the current staff to be the interim head coach the Colts decided to hire former center Jeff Saturday to be the interim. Saturday has no real coaching experience but regardless he’ll be leading the Colts onto the field this weekend.
Outside of the limited coaching experience, Saturday has his work cut out for him taking over an injury-ridden roster. The Colts had 11 players on the injury report on Wednesday and it is still unclear if Jonathan Taylor will be able to play this weekend and if he is how effective he’ll be. Sam Ehlinger will get another start at quarterback after a tough performance last weekend. Ehlinger will be looking to somehow kickstart this Colts offense ranked dead last in the league in points per game only averaging 14.7.
Ehlinger and the Colts might have a chance to turn it around this weekend against a struggling Las Vegas defense though. The Raiders defense is allowing 25.1 points per game and 371.3 yards which both rank 28th in the league. Another horrid performance this week and Josh McDaniels might be the next head coach to be fired. McDaniels defense has been one of the worst teams in getting off the field on third down letting their opponents convert 48% of their third-down opportunities.
Las Vegas is also struggling with the injury bug as well as it was announced this week that both tight end Darren Waller and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow have both been placed on IR. The Raiders offense is very pass-heavy so Derek Carr will need to rely even more on Davante Adams and Mack Hollins to expose this banged-up Colts defense.
This game opened with the Raiders being favored by (-5) points at home but currently sits at (-4.5) in most sportsbooks. The point total opened at 43 points but has been bet down to 41.5 at the time of writing this, however, the more injury news that comes out this number could continue to go down.
Both teams have a losing record ATS this season but I’m focused on the point total in this one as I’ll be betting the under of 41.5. It’s important to note that this isn’t a number to wait on as the more this number plummets it becomes a non-bet in my opinion. Colts games have gone under a lot recently as the under is 8-0 in the Colts last 8 road games and 14-3 in the Colts last 17 games.
Indianapolis has done a good job limiting opponents passing attack, despite their losing record, and now that Carr is down two more targets the Raiders offense could struggle even more. Carr has not looked comfortable in McDaniels offense and if the Colts focus entirely on stopping Adams it could be a tough day for the Raiders. Quite frankly I don’t trust either offense and think points could be hard to come by on Sunday.