Two teams who have been struggling as of late will play tonight, with the Indiana Pacers hosting the Miami Heat. We’ll preview the game and then go over a prop bet with a lot of value.
The Miami Heat enter tonight off a loss to the Spurs, bringing their record over the last ten games to 5-5. Miami has a -2.3 NET rating in that span, with most of their problems coming on the offensive end. Over the past ten games, Miami is 26th in the league in offensive rating and had an effective field goal percentage of 52.8%.
Defense is keeping Miami afloat for the most part, and despite the negative NET rating in the last ten games, the Heat was still 12th in defensive rating in that span. Miami is forcing an average of 16.1 turnovers a game which is fifth in the league, and gives them an advantage tonight against a Pacers team that averages 15.9 turnovers per game.
Indiana is 4-6 over their last ten games and has been slowly turning into the team everyone pegged them to be before the season. The Pacers have a -5 NET rating over those ten games, and on Saturday night, they allowed 136 points to a depleted Brooklyn Nets team. That was the third time they allowed over 130 points to be scored over the ten-game span.
The offense has not been much more productive, putting up an offensive rating that is 19th in the league in that ten-game span. This team's scoring ability is there, but the aforementioned turnover problem has made it difficult for them to close games out. Indiana had the lead going into the fourth quarter against the Nets but couldn’t do enough to close out the win. In that game, the Pacers committed 18 turnovers.
My best prop play for this game is Tyler Herro Over 2.5 three-pointers made at (-130). Herro is averaging 3.3 made three-pointers over his last ten games and has made nine in his previous two games combined. Recently Herro has been taking either the most or second most field goal attempts per game for the Heat, so they rely on him heavily to supply the scoring next to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Miami is averaging the eighth most three-pointers taken a game this season, and over his last three games, Herro has attempted 20 threes, so there will be plenty of chances for him to go over his total throughout the game. Opponents are shooting 36.5% from three this season against the Pacers, so they have been a below-average team at limiting three-point looks.
This is a good spot for Herro based on his role on offense and the Pacers' recent defensive struggles. Herro is shooting 50% from three on 18 attempts in his last two games, so this is a good number to capitalize on his hot shooting.