05.12.2022

Heat @ Grizzles Game Preview and Pick: Value on First Half Total

One of the better games amongst tonight’s eight-game NBA slate will feature the Miami Heat heading to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies. We’ll preview the game and then get into why the betting trends are pointing to the first-half total.

Game Preview

The Heat enters tonight off an overtime win at home over the Celtics but has been inconsistent as of late. Miami is 5-5 over their last 10 games and they started that span 1-4 and finished it 4-1. At times the offense has completely disappeared leading to them only averaging 109.5 points per game and being 23rd in offensive rating this season.

Injuries have been a major problem early on this season for Miami and have contributed to the inconsistent numbers on both sides of the floor. Jimmy Butler returned to the line-up last game against the Celtics and scored 25 points leading the Heat to score 120 points in the game.

Memphis is also 5-5 over their last 10 games but has won their last two games. The Grizzlies have a big advantage tonight when it comes to rebounding as Memphis leads the NBA in rebounds per game and offensive rebounds per game. The Grizzlies are boasting a 30.6% offensive-rebounding percentage and a 77% defensive-rebounding percentage. Miami is 26th in the league in total rebounds per game and 24th in the league in defensive rebounds.

Giving second chance looks to the Grizzlies is dangerous with the way Ja Morant has been playing as of late. Morant is averaging 28.4 points per game over the last 10 games and has a 114.8 offensive rating on the season. The Grizzlies star leads a highly efficient Grizzlies fastbreak offense that averages 17.5 fastbreak points per game which is third in the league.

Why Target the 1H Over?

When it comes to high-scoring first halves the Grizzlies and Heat are two of the most profitable teams in the NBA. The first half over has the same record for both teams and that is 15-7-1, tonight the first half total can be found at 114.5 and I think the trend will continue leading to this one going over.

Miami is allowing 30.1 points in the first quarter which is 24th in the NBA, while the Grizzlies have been scoring an average of 30.7 points in the first quarter which is sixth in the league. Despite the first-quarter defensive struggles, the Heat are eighth in first-quarter scoring so both teams have the ability to come out of the gate scoring at a high level.

In their last game, the Heat were able to score 59 first-half points against one of the best defensive teams in the league the Boston Celtics, they also allowed 62 first-half points to be scored. The Grizzlies were able to put up 69 first-half points in their last game so as long as they can push in transition with success and continue their solid shooting from three then this first-half betting trend should continue to be profitable.