nfl
11.12.2023

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Game Preview and Pick: Love in the Big Apple

After their week ten loss to the Steelers, the optimism surrounding Jordan Love and this Packers team was dwindling. Green Bay was 3-6 going into their week 11 matchup with the Chargers, but now they find themselves 6-6 heading into tonight’s game with the Giants, with Jordan Love’s future shining brighter than the Christmas tree in Rockefeller Center.

Standing in the way of the Packers and their hunt for a better playoff position will be Tommy DeVito, as he looks to keep the legend of Tommy Cutlets alive for another week. After previewing this Monday Night Football matchup, I’ll break down what prop markets I’ll be targeting for Jordan Love and Saquon Barkley.

Game Preview

While the playoffs are seemingly out of the picture for the New York Giants, the team's faithful fans finally have something to rally around this season in undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. The New Jersey native has a 2-1 record as a starter, and across five total games of action, he’s posted 697 yards and a 7:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Before their bye week, DeVito led the Giants to an ugly 10-7 win over the Patriots, giving New York a two-game win streak heading into tonight. While it was a notch in the win column, the Giants did finish with a (-12.44) EPA on offense, so it was mainly their defense that led them to the victory.

Over the past three weeks, Wink Martindale’s defense has forced 11 turnovers, and by posting a (12.51) EPA last week, they’ve managed back-to-back weeks with a positive defensive EPA. It is worth noting that New York has only played one winning team over their last six games, so the quality of offense they’ve played has not been much of a challenge.

That changes tonight, though, when they line up across from a red-hot Packers offense averaging 26.3 points per game over their last three games. Quarterback Jordan Love has looked like a different player in that span, throwing eight touchdowns with no interceptions. Over his last five games, Love has only posted a quarterback rating lower than 108.5 in one of them, which had the Packers ranked 10th in DVOA heading into this weekend.

With Love figuring things out, the Packers' defense is where the true concern lies with this team. Since their week six bye week, Green Bay has finished with a negative EPA on defense in five of their seven games, and over the past four weeks, they’ve allowed 140+ rushing yards in every game.

Packers Prop Pick

With the way he’s playing, it feels wrong to target any other player than Jordan Love for my first pick of the game. The young quarterbacks' completions prop is currently set at 20.5, and I’ll be taking the over for my play. Unfortunately, due to Wisconsin sports betting legislation, most Packers fans won’t be able to tail this pick on mobile betting apps. Over his last ten games, Love has averaged 22.1 completions, and he has exceeded tonight’s total in eight of those games, including each of his last four.

Green Bay has not been shy about consistently putting the ball in Love’s hands, as the team ranks 10th in pass play percentage this season. With Love ranked 10th in adjusted completion rate since week ten, per FantasyPros, it’s hard to imagine they don’t ride the hot hand tonight, especially with the matchup in front of them.

Since week nine, the Giants' secondary has allowed the 14th-highest adjusted completion percentage and the 8th most passing yards per game, according to FantasyPros. The only quarterbacks to not exceed 20 completions against the Giants over their last six games are Zach Wilson, Aidan O’Connell, and the tandem of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.

Giants Prop Pick

Tommy DeVito may be the story of the Giants, but Saquon Barkley remains the backbone of the New York offense. For my Giants play, I’ll be backing Barkley to go over his longest rush total of 16.5, which is priced at (-115) on BetMGM. The veteran has blown past this number in five straight games, and in six of his last seven.

On average this season, Barkley’s longest rush per game is 24 yards, and now he gets to play a Packers run defense that would struggle to stop an office chair at the moment. Green Bay ranks 26th in rush yards allowed per attempt this season, and according to FantasyPros, they have allowed the 7th highest explosive run rate and have the 9th most missed tackles since week seven. New York won’t be shy about leaning on their workhorse, and I think he rewards them with another big play tonight.

Recap

  • Jordan Love Over 20.5 Completions (-109) on BetRivers

  • Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards (-115) on BetMGM

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