09.10.2023

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders Game Preview and Pick

Following another primetime NFL blowout last night, the Packers and Raiders will round out week five on Monday Night Football. Neither side has gotten off to the start they were looking for, with the Raiders entering this matchup trying to snap a three-game losing streak. We’ll preview the game before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting for my play.

Game Preview

While Jimmy Garoppolo sat in concussion protocol last weekend, rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell led the Raiders offense against one of their divisional rivals, the LA Chargers. O’Connell would finish the day with 238 yards and was one throw away from leading a 17-point second-half comeback, but unfortunately for the Raiders faithful, that throw was a red zone interception that would seal a 24-17 Raiders loss.

With the Raiders back in the primetime spotlight for the second time in three weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo will be back under center. The veteran signal-caller will lead an offense that ranks dead last in the league in rushing yards per game, averaging 65.3. There is no denying the NFL is a passing league, and the Raiders are 7th in pass play percentage, but the problem is their lack of a run game makes it even harder to move the ball downfield.

If there were ever a time for Las Vegas to get Josh Jacobs and the run game going to take pressure off Garoppolo, it would be tonight against a Packers defense that is 31st in average rushing yards allowed per game and 23rd in yards allowed per carry. In their 34-20 loss in week four to Detroit, the Packers' defense finished with a (-8.47) EPA and a (-6.58) EPA just on run plays, which means they’ve had a negative EPA on defense on run plays in all four weeks of the season.

Their offense under Jordan Love did not fair much better against the Lions, as the team finished with a (-8.60) offensive EPA. The first-year starter at quarterback finished the day with two interceptions, giving him a 2:3 touchdown to interception ratio in the last two weeks after he started the season with six touchdowns and no picks through weeks one and two.

Pick for the Game

With the injuries in the Packers receiving corp, Romeo Doubs has stepped up big time in the last two weeks, and for my play, I’ll be targeting him to go over his receiving yards prop of 45.5, which is priced at (-115). The second-year wideout has exceeded this total in the past two weeks, and in that span, he has pulled in 14 catches on 25 targets.

Another second-year wideout, Christian Watson, made his season debut last week, but the Packers still seem to be easing him into action, so Doubs has been the primary receiver for Love to lean on. The Nevada product has a 24.4% target share this season, and according to FantasyPros, he ranks 23rd out of all receivers in deep targets.

Green Bay enters this game ranked 9th in pass play percentage, and they’re taking on a Raiders defense that is 25th in opponent completion percentage and 17th in yards allowed per pass. Not only does Doubs average 6.79 yards per target and 11.20 yards per reception, but according to PFF, he has the highest target rate on the team against zone coverage, which is what the Raiders defense will likely be lined up in for most of the night.