Would you believe me if I told you the Detroit Tigers have a better record over the last ten games than the Texas Rangers? Regardless if you would or not, it’s true, and both teams will meet tonight in Texas fresh off series losses. We’ll preview tonight’s game before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting in this one.
Entering the 8th inning of yesterday’s Rangers and Yankees game, it looked like Texas was in line for another series win. That would not be the case, though, as a three-run inning by the Yankees gave them a 5-3 lead and would ultimately give them the series. The Rangers out-hit the Yankees in all three games, yet they lost two out of the three games, and in the second game of the series, they were held scoreless for the first time since June 7th.
Andrew Heaney will get the ball tonight for the Rangers as they look to get back into the win column. The left-hander has made 14 starts up to this point, and across 72.3 innings, he has pitched to a 3.98 ERA with 76 strikeouts and 31 walks. Heaney is fresh off his fifth win of the season, in which he went 5 ⅔ innings with six punchouts and two earned runs allowed.
Heaney will take on a Tigers team that may have a better record over the past ten games but is also coming off a series loss. With the chance to win their third straight series yesterday, the Tigers fell 6-3 in extra innings, as their offense went quiet after a three-run third inning. Detroit struck out 14 times and left 15 runners on base, giving their pitchers a very thin margin for error from the third inning forward.
Taking the mound tonight for the Tigers will be Matthew Boyd, who is set to make his 15th start of the year. The Tigers' left-hander has picked up two straight wins and has 15 strikeouts over his last 12 innings. Despite those outings, Boyd still has a 5.37 ERA across 70.3 innings.
The Rangers' offense is not one to be held at bay for long periods, and with them back in their home ballpark, I think we will see them return to their usual form. Texas is 12-5 in their last 17 games following a loss, and with that, I’ll be taking Matthew Boyd to allow over 2.5 earned runs which is priced at (-135).
Over their last seven games against a lefty starter at home, the Rangers are 6-1, and not only is Boyd averaging 3.3 earned runs over his last ten starts, but he allowed five to the Rangers in Texas back on May 29th. The Rangers' success against Boyd is unsurprising since they rank 4th in wRC+ and wOBA and 3rd in OPS against lefties at home over the past month.
Boyd’s 30.7% flyball percentage is dangerous against a powerful Rangers lineup that features a handful of solid right-handed bats. Righties have been a weakness for Boyd this season as they are hitting .267 off him with a .327 BAbip. With hitters like Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, who both have wRC+’s of 109 or better against lefties, I think Texas is set up nicely for a big night at the plate.
Matthew Boyd Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135)