30.06.2023

Detroit Tigers @ Colorado Rockies Game Preview and Pick

The Rockies' current homestand has been filled with scoring, and as they come off a blowout loss yesterday, they will play host to the Tigers for a three-game series. With the interleague matchup set to begin tonight, we’ll take a look at the opening game before going over my play for the game.

Game Preview

For what has been an up-and-down season, the Detroit Tigers, who are ten games below .500, will enter tonight off a series split with one of the best teams in the American League. Detroit left Texas on a high note yesterday by securing the sweep in an 8-5 win. After heading into the 7th innings with the game knotted at three, Detroit scored five runs over the next two innings, capped by Spencer Torkelson’s second home run of the game.

Despite the win, the Tigers did receive a tough blow as their young starter Reese Olson left the game early with an injury. Tonight, the Tigers will send Michael Lorenzen to the mound from their depleted pitching staff, as he is set to make his 14th start of the year. The veteran is currently pitching to a 3.97 ERA in 77 innings, but he has responded nicely to two straight bad starts by allowing just three runs and striking out 11 over his last 11 innings.

Lorenzen and the Tigers will match up with a Rockies team this weekend that was able to steal one game from the Dodgers but would ultimately struggle mightily in the other two games. In the final game of the series yesterday, with the opportunity to take two out of three, Colorado lost 14-3. The Rockies registered nine hits in the game, but none went for extra bases, and Elias Diaz drove in all three runs.

Colorado will have left-hander Austin Gomber on the hill tonight as the team looks to hold an opponent under three runs for just the second time over the past ten games. Gomber picked up a win in his last outing against the Angels, allowing two earned runs in five innings, but his ERA is still sitting at 7.01 this season.

Pick for the Game

Detroit is currently listed as a (-115) favorite on the money line tonight, and I’ll be backing them for my play. It has not happened often, but the Tigers have been profitable in games they are favored with a 6-3 record. Aside from that, Detroit’s offense has been hitting lefties well over the last month and has some momentum from their nice win yesterday.

Since June 1st, Detroit ranks 11th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against left-handed pitching on the road, as they are hitting .255 in 107 plate appearances. Their matchup tonight, Austin Gomber, has an 8.72 ERA when pitching at home. Additionally, Gomber is in the 2nd percentile in expected batting average and slugging percentage and sits in the 13th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

The Rockies' offense ranks 17th in wOBA, 20th in OPS, and 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home in June. Not only are those numbers alarming since they play at Coors Field, but tonight, they will take on a starter in Michael Lorenzen, that has a 3.64 ERA and .208 batting average when pitching on the road. On top of that, the Tigers' bullpen has a 3.89 FIP over the last month, which is far better than the Rockies' bullpen FIP of 4.78.