13.11.2023

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Game Preview and Pick: Kincaid Can't be Stopped

Week ten will wrap up with a third straight underwhelming primetime matchup. The 3-5 Denver Broncos head into Buffalo tonight looking for their third straight win, while the Bills look to get back on track after a primetime loss last weekend. With the Bills' offense playing as cold as the weather in Buffalo, it may be difficult for them to put points on the board, but I still think Dalton Kincaid is in for a fourth consecutive big game.

Game Preview

You can either go into the bye week with a ton of momentum or limp into it looking for a break. For the Denver Broncos they went into it with the former, as they picked up a massive 24-9 win over the Chiefs in week eight, despite being (+7) point underdogs. That win not only gave them their first winning streak of the Sean Payton era, but it was also just the third time they scored over 21 points this season.

More importantly than their scoring output, their win over the Chiefs was also the first time Denver finished with a positive defensive EPA (11.85) in a game this year. Entering this week, the Broncos were ranked dead last in defensive DVOA, but after forcing five turnovers from Kansas City and getting an extra week of rest, they come into tonight with more positive momentum than they’ve had all season.

While the Broncos' defense is trending in the right direction, the Buffalo Bills' defense is heading the opposite way. Over the last five weeks, the Bills are 2-3, and in that five-game stretch, Buffalo has yet to finish a game with a positive defensive EPA. Last week against the Bengals, the Bills posted a (-14.35) EPA on that side of the ball, as they now rank 23rd in opponent third down conversion percentage (41.7%) and 17th in total yards allowed per game (334).

To make matters worse for the Bills, their defensive downfall has come when their offense can’t avoid giving the ball to the other team. Across that five-game stretch, Buffalo has lost the turnover battle 9-3, and despite still entering this week second in offensive DVOA, the Bills' turnovers have primarily come in pivotal parts of the game, like last weekend when they fumbled on their first position of the 4th quarter.

Pick for the Game

Buffalo might be 1-2 over their last three games, but on a positive note, their rookie tight end, Dalton Kincaid, has seemingly formed an undeniable chemistry with Josh Allen. After not playing in week six, Kincaid has come back over his last three games and put on a show, which is partially why I’ll be backing him to go over 52.5 yards at (-130) tonight for my play.

The rookie has exceeded tonight’s total in three straight games, averaging 8.6 targets and 7.6 receptions in that span. Prior to him missing week six due to injury, Kincaid had not once gone over 50 receiving yards, but Josh Allen is now leaning heavily on him in the passing game. According to FantasyPros, Kincaid has a 21% target share and 23% first read share since week seven, and to make things even better, he is heading into an ideal matchup tonight.

Despite being the only team remaining to play just eight games, the Broncos are still 7th in total receiving yards allowed to tight ends. Entering this week, they were also leading the league in receiving yards allowed per game to the position, according to FantasyPros. Four of the last five tight ends to matchup against the Broncos have gone over 50 yards, and with his increased role, I think Kincaid is primed to add his name to that list.