One of the three NBA games in action tonight will feature the Golden State Warriors heading to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. One particular player prop stood out to me in this one so we’ll be going over why it has good value and then we’ll break down the game a bit as well.
The Golden State Warriors are off to an 11-10 start to the season and a large reason the defending champs have struggled a bit is their defense. The Mavericks rely on Dinwiddie to get guys like Luka Doncic and Christian Wood open looks and also provide as a scoring threat so I think tonight he will be able to do both easily against this Warriors' lackluster defense.
Dinwiddie is averaging 18.5 points per game over the last 10 games and is coming off a 22-point performance against the Bucks. He is also averaging 5.5 assists per game in that span as well so he is certainly playing at an elevated level recently.
One big reason I think he can produce similar numbers tonight is due to the Warriors' 113.4 defensive rating which is 22nd in the NBA. Golden State is allowing 117.3 points per game and that is amongst the worst in the league in that category so if tonight turns into a high-scoring game Dinwiddie should have no problems getting his looks.
If Dinwiddie is matched up with Steph Curry or Jordan Poole he should have the advantage offensively in those match-ups. Curry has a defensive rating of 111.8 which is not even in the top 50 of Western Conference starters and Poole’s is worse than Curry's. Assist wise the Warriors allow 26 assists per game and that puts them at 20th in the league in the category. Dinwiddie plays over 30 minutes per game so he will be on the floor plenty tonight to go over this total.
As for the game, the Dallas Mavericks are 3-7 in their last 10 games and 1-9 ATS bringing their season ATS record to 4-14-1. Luka Doncic leads the way in points, assists, and rebounds for the team but as a whole, the team is struggling offensively.
Unlike the Warriors, the offense has been the problem for this team and they are led by the defense. Dallas is only allowing 107.3 points per game which is fourth in the NBA so it should be a fun match-up tonight against the number three scoring offense in the Warriors.
Golden State has won three games in a row and has scored 120 points or more in five straight games. The trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole have helped the Warriors shoot 38.2% from three-point range and 48.3% from the field this season. Much like the Mavs, the Warriors have struggled to cover the spread this season and are 2-9 ATS in road games this year.