08.09.2023

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants Game Preview and Pick

If there is any hope for postseason baseball in the Bay Area, the San Francisco Giants will need to go on a run and soon. Over their last ten games, the Giants are 3-7 overall and now find themselves 2.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot heading into this weekend. With the last-place team in the NL West, the Colorado Rockies, in town, the Giants do have a good opportunity to find the win column.

Game Preview

For the rest of the season, the Rockies can only hope to play spoiler for teams looking to make the playoffs, but so far, they haven’t been very successful at that. Colorado is also 3-7 over their last ten games, and they have lost five straight series, including their most recent one over Arizona. The Rockies could have taken the series in the final game with the D-Backs, but they fell 12-5 and only registered six hits.

Colorado’s pitching woes were on full display on Wednesday, with starter Chris Flexen allowing six earned runs in 2.1 innings of work. Getting the ball for the Rockies tonight will be lefty Ty Blach, who has made eight starts up to this point. In his most recent outing, the Blach was hit around by the Blue Jays, allowing five earned runs on nine hits in six innings of work.

Tonight, Blach will take on a Giants lineup that has gone cold at the worst possible time. Over their last ten games, San Francisco has only scored four or more runs in three games, and they are coming off a loss on Wednesday in which they fell 8-2. Despite picking up ten hits in their losing effort, the Giants left 16 runners on base, as only Casey Schmitt and Joey Bart were able to drive in runs in the contest.

As they look to snap a six-game losing streak, San Francisco will send rookie starter Kyle Harrison to the bump for his fourth career start. The lefty looked strong in his first outing and dominated the second, but his third outing did not go as planned. Taking on the Padres, Harrison allowed four home runs, which resulted in six earned runs across 5.2 innings of work.

Pick for the Game

The Giants' run-line of (-1.5) is currently priced at (+104), and I’ll be backing them for my play. While they have struggled recently, this is an ideal matchup and spot for the Giants on both sides of the ball since they have hit lefties well at home recently, while the Rockies have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching on the road.

Since August 8th, the Rockies are hitting .168 and rank 30th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against left-handed pitching on the road. With a 27.6% strikeout percentage to go along with that, the Rockies have a tough matchup with Kyle Harrison since the lefty already has a 32.8% strikeout percentage. Harrison’s fastball has a .185 expected batting average entering tonight, and the fact that Colorado hasn’t seen him before gives him a nice advantage.

Taking the mound opposite Harrison will be Ty Blach, who is in the 4th percentile in expected ERA and 1st percentile in expected batting average. Blach will also hand the ball to a bullpen with the 3rd highest xFIP in the league over the past month at 5.18. Blach and the bullpen take on a Giants lineup that is 13th in OPS and 11th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching at home over the past month.