10.08.2023

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview and Prop Pick

Entering tonight on a four-game win streak, the Los Angeles Dodgers will open their series with the Rockies favored by (-375) on the moneyline, which tied for the highest moneyline favorite price this season. We’ll preview the game before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting for my play.

Game Preview

A throwing error in the bottom of the 10th inning by Ezequiel Tovar was the difference between the Rockies coming into today on a series loss instead of a win. In a back-and-forth game between the Rockies and Brewers yesterday, Colorado went into the bottom of the 10th inning with a 6-5 lead. In the bottom of the inning, however, Justin Lawrence would allow a game-tying RBI double, and then Tovar would make the costly error that resulted in a walk-off for Milwaukee.

Colorado will now wrap up their long road stand with a four-game series with the Dodgers, and starting the series on the mound for them tonight will be left-hander Ty Blach. The lefty has made seven relief appearances before being given a starter role and making three straight starts entering tonight. In Blach’s most recent outing, he picked up his first loss after allowing four earned runs in 4.2 innings to the Cardinals.

Blach has yet to face a lineup as daunting as the Dodgers lineup this season as they enter tonight after sweeping the Diamondbacks in a two-game series. David Peralta would drive in the team's lone runs in the 8th inning, as they would leave Arizona with a 2-0 win. Despite scoring just two runs yesterday, over their last ten games, the Dodgers have scored five or more runs in seven of them.

After pitching a shutout last night, the Dodgers pitching staff will look to carry that momentum into tonight. While LA has yet to officially announce a starter, veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw is expected to take the mound for the first time since June 27th. Before hitting the IL, Kershaw was pitching to a 2.55 ERA in 95.3 innings, and in his last outing before the injury, he went six scoreless against the Rockies.

Prop Pick

Ty Blach’s strikeout total on FanDuel is currently sitting at 3.5, and I’ll be taking the under, which is priced at (-156) for my play. The lefty has recorded two strikeouts in each of his three starts this season, and even across his seven relief appearances, two punchouts is still his single high. Aside from his lack of strikeout numbers heading into tonight, Blach has not thrown more than five innings in an outing this season and now has to take on a Dodgers lineup that hits lefties exceptionally well.

Over the past month, the Dodgers have the 12th-lowest strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching at home at 19.7%. Even if you wanted a bigger sample size, in 332 at-bats over the last month, both at home and on the road, LA has the 9th lowest strikeout percentage against lefties at 19.3%.

Not only do they not strike out much, but they also hit lefties hard, as they have a .273 average with a 128 wRC+ over the past month against south-paws. These numbers are too strong for a guy like Blach to match up with. The Rockies starter has never been a big strikeout guy, as he enters tonight with a 12.5% strikeout percentage in 185 career road innings.