02.06.2023

Colorado Rockies @ Kansas City Royals Game Preview and Pick

Following their series loss yesterday to the Diamondbacks, the Rockies will continue their road stand tonight in Kansas City against a rested Royals team. We’ll preview game one of this series before going over my play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

It was a rough series in Arizona for the Rockies as they lost all four games while allowing five or more runs to be scored in each of them. Colorado outhit the Diamondbacks in yesterday’s loss, but due to a bullpen collapse, they watched Corbin Carrol hit a two-RBI single to walk it off in the ninth. That hit erased the four runs the Rockies were able to put on the board, headlined by an Ezequiel Tovar home run.

As the Rockies look to end their streak of allowing five or more runs, they’ll send Chase Anderson to the mound. In three starts with Colorado, the veteran has thrown 15.7 innings and pitched to a 1.72 ERA with eight strikeouts and four walks. Anderson got the no-decision his last time out on the mound as he went five innings against the Mets with four strikeouts and one earned run on four hits.

The right-hander will take on a Royals team that has not played in two days but lost their most recent game to the Cardinals. After scoring seven runs in their first game against St. Louis, the Royals turned around and only managed to score one run in a 2-1 loss on Tuesday night. A Bobby Witt RBI was the only offensive highlight for Kansas City in the game, as they struck out 11 times and left 14 runners on base.

Getting the ball for Kansas City tonight will be struggling right-hander Jordan Lyles. In 11 starts and 61.7 innings, Lyles has a 7.30 ERA with 45 strikeouts and 23 walks. In his last start, Lyles picked up his 9th loss of the season as he went five innings with two strikeouts and five earned runs against the Nationals.

Pick for the Game

Colorado is currently listed at (+100) on the F5 moneyline, and I’ll be backing them for my play. Kansas City is 9-15-5 on the F5 moneyline when playing at home this season, and they are sending out a starter that has consistently been knocked around the yard. Colorado is the 6th most profitable team for F5 moneylines entering tonight, and they have had some solid success against right-handed pitching as of late.

Colorado is 12th in wRC+, 11th in wOBA, and 11th in OPS against right-handed pitching on the road over the past month, and I couldn’t think of a more ideal starter at the moment to face than Jordan Lyles. The Royal's starter is in the 9th percentile in barrel percentage, 7th percentile in expected slugging percentage, and 32nd percentile in expected batting average. Lyles has a 5.40 ERA or higher in four of the first five innings, and with a 5.68 ERA at home, home-field advantage has not been a thing for him.

On the other side, Chase Anderson is in the 93rd percentile in hard hit percentage, 94th percentile in barrel percentage, and 66th percentile in expected slugging. The righty has a 3.00 ERA or lower for four of the first five innings and faces a Royals team that has failed to score in the first five innings in two of their last three games.