After winning the series' opening game against the Phillies, the Colorado Rockies lost their next three games to bring their overall record over the past ten games to 1-9. Tonight, the Rockies will be back on the road in Cleveland for an interleague matchup, and we’ll preview the game before going over why I’ll be targeting an F5 bet.
Despite their win yesterday afternoon over the Marlins, the Cleveland Guardians have lost two straight series and four out of their last five series. In yesterday’s game, the Guardians got a phenomenal start from Logan Allen in his Major League Debut, as he threw six innings with eight strikeouts and just one earned run allowed. Cleveland also had two through four in their lineup go a combined 9 for 13 at the plate, helping them push across seven runs.
Tonight the Guardians will turn to Cal Quantrill on the mound to make his fifth start of the season. The right-hander has thrown 21.7 innings with a 4.15 ERA and 13 strikeouts to six walks. In his career, Quantrill has always thrown better at his home ballpark, with a career .833 win percentage at home as opposed to a .480 win percentage on the road.
Quantrill will take on a Rockies lineup that has scored three or fewer runs in nine of their last ten games and ranks 23rd in OPS. Colorado has struggled with getting production from the bottom of their lineup, as no matter who they plug into the fifth through ninth spots in the order, the numbers are lacking. By number in the order, the highest batting average between the fifth through ninth hitters this season is .229.
Colorado’s pitching staff has struggled even more, though, as they rank 29th in ERA and 27th in WHIP as a team. On the mound tonight for the Rockies will be lefty Austin Gomber, who is 0-4 through his first four starts and, in 16.3 innings, has a 12.12 ERA. The lefty has 12 strikeouts and nine walks and has allowed at least one home run in his four starts.
The Guardians' run line for the first five innings is currently set at (-.5) and priced at (-120), and that will be my play in this one. Colorado is 1-6 in their last six interleague road games, and not only will Cleveland be entering off a win, but they are 10-2 in their last 12 games against the NL West. Aside from trends, the Guardians also hold an advantage in the starting pitching department.
Colorado has not led after five innings in all four of Gomber’s starts, as he has allowed at least three or more runs in the first five innings of every start. In the lefties, last outing, he let up nine runs in the first two innings and now takes on a Guardians team that has hit lefties better this season. Gomber is also in the 24th percentile in barrel percentage, 3rd percentile in expecting slugging percentage, and is in the bottom 3% of the league in expected WOBA.
I mentioned it earlier, but Quantrill has always preferred pitching at home, as opponents have a .239 batting average against him in his career at home. The righty has not produced big strikeouts numbers this season, but he’s in the 52nd percentile in hard hit percentage and has been a groundball dominant pitcher with a 44.9% ground ball percentage.
Cleveland Guardians F5 (-.5)(-120)