19.06.2023

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds Game Preview and Prop Pick

Saying the Cincinnati Reds have taken the league by storm is an understatement. Entering tonight, this young Reds team is on an eight-game win streak, making them 8-2 over their past ten games. After an impressive weekend in Houston, the team returns to play in front of their home crowd for a three-game series with the Rockies, and we’ll preview tonight’s game before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting.

Game Preview

While one team in this matchup was off completing a sweep, the Colorado Rockies were in Atlanta getting swept. Yesterday afternoon, the Rockies' 14-6 loss made it so they were outscored 40-12 in the four games they played against the Braves. A run differential of 28 in the series likely made for a tough plane ride over to Cincinnati. Ryan McMahon hit two home runs yesterday, but that was about the extent of Colorado's highlights.

After what shakes down to an average of ten runs per game over the past four games, the Rockies' pitching staff will look to put their nightmare weekend behind them, with Austin Gomber getting the start tonight. The left-hander has made 14 starts this season, and in 66.7 innings, he has pitched to a 7.29 ERA with 44 strikeouts and 28 walks. Gomber took the loss his last time out, allowing three earned on six hits across six innings.

The Reds lineup that Gomber will be facing tonight has scored a combined 19 runs over their past two games, including nine yesterday in their 9-7 win. That win yesterday afternoon gave the Reds a sweep over the Astros and a segment on every baseball talk show in America today. In that 9-7 victory, Cincinnati recorded nine hits, with three being home runs by Jonathan India, Jake Fraley, and Spencer Steer.

With the team looking for their ninth straight, it’ll be Brandon Williamson getting the ball for the start. The big lefty has made six career starts up to this point and has a 5.40 ERA in 31.7 innings. Williamson went five innings in his last outing, allowing four runs (three earned) on the way to his first big league win.

Prop Pick

There are plenty of ways to bet on the Reds to continue their hot streak, and one of them is by taking Rockies starter Austin Gomber to go over his hits allowed total of 5.5, which is priced at (-110). The left-hander is averaging 6.07 hits per game this season and has exceeded this total in four straight starts. Not only has he struggled to keep teams out of the hit column as of late, but the Reds have hit lefties well recently.

Entering tonight, the Reds rank 8th in wRC+, 6th in OPS, and 6th in wOBA against left-handed pitching at home over the last month. On top of all that, the Reds are also 2nd in that span in BAbip, which bodes well for tonight and picking up hits against Gomber.

The Reds' numbers set up a rough matchup for the Rockies starter, who is in the second percentile in expected batting average, which comes in at .316. Gomber is also in the 17th percentile in hard hit percentage and has an opponent batting average of .328 the first time through the order. With a BAbip of .341 on the road this season, I think the lefty could be going over his hit total for the fifth straight game.