Following their big series win on Sunday Night baseball against the Yankees, the Boston Red Sox turned around and lost the first game of their series with the Colorado Rockies. As they look to even the series tonight, we’ll preview the game before going over my best prop play for the action.
The Rockies were outhit, struck out 11 times, and left 20 runners on base in last night’s game, yet they came away with a 4-3 win in extra innings. Three of the team’s six hits came off the bat of Jurickson Profar, but ultimately the Red Sox beat themselves in extra innings by walking in a run and allowing a run to score on an error by Tristan Casas. That error gave the Red Sox a two-run deficit to overcome in the bottom of the tenth, which would prove to be too much.
After losing six games in a row, the Rockies have now won two straight games and can secure a series win with a victory tonight. As they look for that series win, they will send veteran Chase Anderson to the mound for his sixth start of the season. Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the Rockies, throwing 27 innings with a 2.67 ERA. The righty struck out a season-high seven hitters in 5 ⅓ innings in his last outing against the Giants.
Anderson will face a Red Sox offense that has only scored more than three runs in one of their last ten games, which is a big reason why they are 3-7 in that span. Last night, Boston was able to pick up nine hits, with the two biggest being a Justin Turner RBI double and Christian Arroyo solo home run.
It will be Kutter Crawford getting the start for the Red Sox tonight. The right-hander has bounced between being a reliever and a starter, but he has only thrown three innings a piece in his last three starts. Across a total of 36.7 innings, Crawford has pitched to a 3.68 ERA with 36 strikeouts and six walks.
This is a sentence I did not think I would be writing at the beginning of the season, but I’ll be targeting a prop tonight for Chase Anderson. For my play, I’ll be taking Anderson to go over 14.5 outs recorded, which is priced at (-120). It may be a small sample size with only five outings, but Anderson has been a reliable starter for the Rockies and has gone over this total in all five of his starts.
The right-hander has recorded at least 15 outs in five straight outings and is fresh off a season-high pitch count of 92. Aside from his workload slowly increasing and him consistently giving Colorado five innings, he has an ideal matchup tonight against a struggling Red Sox lineup. Over the past month, Boston ranks 27th in OPS, 26th in wRC+, and 26th in wOBA against right-handed pitching at home.
In his innings on the road, Anderson has an opponent batting average of .154 and a BAbip of .091. Entering tonight, the veteran is in the 89th percentile in hard hit percentage and 86th percentile in walk percentage, so if he can induce weak contact and continue to limit free passes, then I think he can go at least five innings tonight.
Chase Anderson Over 14.5 Outs (-120)