31.07.2023

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros Game Preview and Prop Picks

In what could be considered the toughest six games an American League team could play in a row, the Astros came out on the other side with a 3-3 record. Following their big series win over the Rangers, the Astros could not carry their momentum into a series with the Rays, ultimately losing two out of three. Now that they are done with that six-game gauntlet, Houston can continue their homestand against the Guardians, and we’ll preview the opening game before going over my two prop plays.

Game Preview

One of the first deals completed during trade deadline season was the Guardians shipping shortstop Amed Rosario to LA for Noah Syndergaard. Now the Guardians will get their first look at the right-hander as he is set to make his team debut tonight, looking to put his rough season with the Dodgers behind him. Syndergaard had a 6.54 ERA in 52.3 innings with LA at the start of the season, so a lot of eyes will be on him tonight to see what the Guardians were trying to accomplish with this deal.

The veteran right-hander will have a Guardians team behind him tonight that is fresh off a series split with the White Sox. In what was a much-needed win yesterday, the Guardians came away with a 5-0 victory in which Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan continued to produce when their team needed it the most, as they went a combined 4-8 at the plate with four RBIs.

Cleveland’s road trip continues tonight with an Astros team that fell flat yesterday with a chance to secure a series win over the Rays. After beating Tampa Bay 17-4 on Saturday night, Houston could not carry over their run production into yesterday, falling 8-2. The Astros would finish the game with ten hits but would ultimately only get RBIs from Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman.

Getting the start tonight for Houston is right-hander J.P. France, who has given the team two straight impressive outings. Over his last two starts, France has thrown a combined 14 innings with two runs (one earned) allowed. Those two outings lowered the right-hander's ERA to 2.87 across 84.7 innings of work.

Prop Picks

The first prop play we’ll be looking at is Alex Bregman over 1.5 total bases, which is priced at (+115). Over the past two months, the Astros' third baseman is hitting .338 with a 174 wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home. Not only is Bregman averaging 2.8 total bases per game over the past ten games, but tonight he faces a starter in Noah Syndergaard, that has a 10.96 road ERA this season and is in the 3rd percentile in expected batting average.

Sticking with the Astros, my second prop play for this game is J.P. France to go under 3.5 strikeouts which is priced at (+105). The right-hander has been pitching great as of late, but his strikeout numbers are not the reason for his success, as he is averaging four a game over his last ten games and has gone under this number in five of his last ten outings.

France has put up a strikeout percentage of 15.3% at home this season, which will not get the job done against a Guardians team with the second-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month at 17.4%. With France not possessing elite strikeout stuff, I don’t see him racking up punchouts against a Guardians lineup with the second-fewest strikeouts looking and swinging this season.