28.03.2023

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks Game Preview and Prop Pick

Not only are the Cleveland Cavaliers one of four Eastern Conference teams to clinch a spot in the playoffs already, but they are also 8-2 over their last ten games. The Cavs will look to continue their winning ways tonight on the road as they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. We’ll preview the game before going over my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

Over their past ten games, the Hawks have gone 5-5 with a NET rating that ranks 13th in the league in that span. The lack of defense they have displayed is a big reason why most people do not see them as a serious contender out of the East. During that ten-game stretch, Atlanta has allowed 119 or more points in eight of those games, which has resulted in them being ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency rating.

Entering tonight, the Hawks have lost two of their last three games and have allowed 123 or more points in each of them. Their most recent loss came on Sunday to the Memphis Grizzlies, a game in which they allowed 123 points on 54% shooting from the field. Atlanta shot 46% from the field themselves and scored 119 points, but their defense kept them out of the win column again.

Atlanta is ranked third in offensive efficiency rating over this same span, which is the only reason they have a positive NET rating in that stretch. The Hawks have not scored under 114 points in the past ten games, but they are in for a battle tonight on that end of the floor against a Cavs team that is third in defensive efficiency.

The Cavs enter tonight on a four-game win streak, but there is a chance they will be without Jarrett Allen and Isaac Okoro. It wouldn’t be ideal to not have those guys in the lineup, but Cleveland is playing at a level where they would likely be able to handle it. Over their last ten games, the Cavs have the fifth-best NET rating in the league and have shown the ability to win games on both ends of the court.

Prop Pick for the Game

For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Evan Mobley over 2.5 assists at (-135). The Cavs' big man is averaging 3.3 per game over his last ten games and has gone over his total in five straight games. In total, over those past ten games, Mobley has cashed in on his total in seven of them. A big reason I like him to continue his pace in terms of distributing is his matchup tonight.

Over the past ten games, no team in the league has allowed more assists per game than the Atlanta Hawks. In that span, the Hawks are allowing an average of 29.7 assists per game and are fresh off a game in which they allowed five players to record three or more assists. Atlanta has struggled to limit ball movement all season, but those issues have only worsened over the past two weeks.

I like this spot no matter what, but if Jarrett Allen cannot play, it becomes even better, as Mobley is averaging 3.2 assists per game when Allen has been out this season. Mobley has been on a tear recently on offense, and with the way Atlanta’s defense has been playing, I think this is the right time to target him in this market.