26.06.2023

Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles Game Preview and Pick

The Cincinnati Reds may have lost their 12-game win streak over the weekend, but the excitement surrounding this team is not going anywhere. Following their highly entertaining series with the Braves, the Reds will be in Baltimore tonight to begin a three-game series with the Orioles, and we’ll preview the first game before going over my play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

With their 3-2 win yesterday, the Baltimore Orioles secured a solid series win over the Mariners. Not only did the Orioles get a much-needed win yesterday, but news also came out that they are promoting their number four prospect Jordan Westburg and he is set to make his debut tonight. The talented infielder will join an Orioles lineup that picked up seven hits yesterday, including a huge Anthony Santander home run.

The Westburg news took a lot of attention yesterday, but Orioles starter Kyle Bradish deserves his flowers for his strong seven-inning performance yesterday. Tonight Baltimore will turn to lefty Cole Irvin to make his sixth start of the season. In five starts and two relief appearances, Irvin has thrown a total of 23.3 innings and has pitched to a 7.71 ERA with 24 strikeouts and ten walks.

Irvin will face one of the hottest lineups in Major League Baseball in the Cincinnati Reds, who have scored five or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games. The Reds may have dropped the final two games of their series against the Braves, but they managed to score six runs in each of those games, including yesterday’s 7-6 loss. Rookie Matt McLain continued to impress in the game by going 4-5 with three doubles and a home run.

As the team is set to begin a quick three-game road trip, they will send lefty Brandon Williamson to the mound. In his seven starts this season, Williamson is posting a 5.40 ERA with 27 punchouts and 13 walks. The lefty has allowed three or more earned runs in each of his last three starts, so he will be looking to put that streak to an end tonight.

Pick for the Game

The total for this game has been bet up to ten, and while I won’t be taking the full game total, I will be taking the F5 over of 5.5. Over the last ten games, the Orioles are 7-2-1 to the F5 over, and Cincinnati is 7-3. Both teams are running out starters that have not been strong recently, and both have to take on highly explosive offenses.

Over the last month, the Reds are 6th in wRC+ and wOBA and 5th in OPS against left-handed pitching on the road. That does not bode well for Cole Irvin, who is in the first percentile in expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. The lefty also has an expected ERA of 8.98 and is in the second percentile in barrel percentage, so the Reds' young sluggers have an excellent matchup tonight.

Conversely, the Orioles are 9th in OPS and wOBA and 6th in wRC+ when playing at home over the past month. Not only do they have some added momentum tonight with Westburg, but they also face a starter tonight in Williamson, who is in the 7th percentile in expected batting average, 2nd percentile in expected slugging, and has a 4.80 ERA in road starts.