05.06.2023

Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres Game Preview and Prop Pick

After yesterday afternoon’s win, the Cubs can either win or split their series with the Padres tonight. We’ll preview the final game of this series before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting for my play in this one.

Game Preview

It was all Cubs from start to finish in yesterday afternoon’s 7-1 win. Chicago scored all seven of their runs in the first three innings, with Yan Gomes, Trey Mancini, and Miguel Amaya leaving the yard. Marcus Stroman kept the Padres lineup at bay, as he pitched six innings and allowed just one unearned run while striking out six. Chicago’s bullpen also halted any comeback possibilities, as they allowed just one hit over three innings.

Tonight the Cubs will hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks for his third start back from injury. In the 9.3 innings he has thrown up to this point, the veteran has pitched to a 3.86 ERA with eight strikeouts and five walks. Hendricks took a no-decision his last time out against the Rays, throwing five innings with three strikeouts and one earned run allowed on six hits.

Hendricks faces a Padres lineup that struck out nine times last night and left 13 runners on base. Yesterday was the second game in this series that San Diego was held to just one run, as their struggles at home over the last month continued. Since May 5th, San Diego has a wRC+ of 86, ranking 26th in the league, and an OPS of .631, ranking 28th.

As they look for a series split, taking the mound for the Padres tonight will be lefty Blake Snell. In 11 starts and 56 innings, Snell has a 4.50 ERA with 61 strikeouts and 34 walks, as command has been a consistent issue for him this season. The left-hander is averaging 3.09 walks per game up to this point and has allowed at least three or more in eight of his last ten starts.

Prop Pick

For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting the over of Blake Snell’s hits allowed total, which is set at 4.5 and priced at (+115). The lefty is averaging 4.4 hits allowed per game this season and has only gone over this total in four of his last ten starts, but he is running into a Cubs team that has been crushing lefties on the road over the past month. Chicago racked up seven hits on Padres lefty starter Ryan Weathers in yesterday’s game over just 1 ⅔ innings.

Chicago is 2nd in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against lefties on the road this past month. Additionally, the Cubs lineup has the highest BAbip in the league in this spot at .458, so I think they are primed to get to Snell tonight. The last three lefty starters the Cubs have faced on the road they have recorded at least five hits against.

Blake Snell is in the 15th percentile in barrel percentage, 36th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 32nd percentile in expected batting average, so although his hits allowed numbers have been decent, I think this is a tough matchup for him. The lefty has also struggled at home this season with a 5.68 ERA and 41.8% hard-hit percentage in 25.1 innings.