nba
01.03.2024

Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers Game Preview and Pick: Phily Keeps Miller Off the Boards

One of the beautiful things about back-to-backs in the NBA is that if you get blown out the night before, you don’t have a lot of time to harp on things before the next game. Last night, the Charlotte Hornets lost by 12 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks, and now they are immediately back in action tonight on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Neither team has come out of the break playing well, but one area Philadelphia does have an advantage in tonight is on the glass, which is why I think that is one area of Brandon Miller’s stat line that will be lacking.

Game Preview

Philadelphia has been playing without Joel Embiid for quite some time now, but it seems as if they are starting to truly feel the effects of not having him on offense. After their 117-99 loss to Boston earlier in the week, the 76ers rank 26th in the league in points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time since the break, according to Cleaning the Glass.

This means Philadelphia is scoring 10.6 points fewer than the average team per 100 possessions in that span. Tyrese Maxey has been doing everything he can to put the team on his back, averaging 28.7 points per game since the break, but he has not received much help from the rest of the starting rotation.

With Embiid out, Tobias Harris becomes the team’s second-leading scorer, but since the break, Harris has not had a game in which he shot better than 42.9% from the floor. Aside from Harris, the Sixers big trade deadline acquisition, Buddy Hield, has gone cold over the last two games, shooting a combined 5-16 from three and 6-21 from the field.

While all of these stats do seem concerning for Sixers fans, it is worth noting they’ve opened the second half of the season with four future playoff teams, so we could see a much different outcome tonight when they match up with the Hornets. In their last two games, the Hornets were dominated by the Milwaukee Bucks, and as a result, they rank 30th in points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time per Cleaning the Glass.

There is no denying that since the trade deadline, the Hornets have improved on the defensive end, but offensively, they still rank 23rd in true shooting percentage (55.8%) and 22nd in effective field goal percentage (52.8%) over the last ten games.

Pick for the Game

Aside from their offensive struggles, the Hornets have also been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league as of late. Playing against a tough-minded Sixers team does not help with that, which is why I’ll be taking the under on Brandon Miller’s rebounds prop, which is set at 4.5 across most Pennsylvania sports betting apps.

Miller has only exceeded four rebounds in just five of his last 15 games and has not exceeded tonight’s total since he returned from the All-Star break. According to NBA.com, Miller also ranks 6th on the Hornets in defensive rebounding chances per game, and in that span, he also averages just .7 offensive rebounds per game.

Even without Embiid, the Sixers do not go down without a fight on the boards, which has led to them ranking 11th in contested rebounding percentage over the last ten games. The Sixers are also 10th in defensive rebounding percentage and 11th in offensive rebounding percentage in that span, so while their offensive struggles may continue, they won’t be bullied on the glass.

Recap

  • Brandon Miller Under 4.5 Rebounds (+106) on Caesars

*odds subject to change

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