27.01.2023

Bucks @ Pacers Game Preview and Prop Pick

The Milwaukee Bucks will look to win their third straight game tonight as they’ll head to Indiana to take on a Pacers team that has only won two of their last ten games. We’ll preview the game before breaking down which prop bet I’m targeting in this one.

Game Preview

Just when it looked like the Pacers might be heading in the right direction after a big come-from-behind win over the Bulls, they turned around and lost to the Orlando Magic 126-120 on Wednesday night. Indiana’s NET rating over their last five games is now -10.8, the 2nd worst in the league.

Opposing teams have been able to find a lot of success on the offensive end against Indiana. Opponents are shooting 51.5% from the field in the past five games, and in their most recent game, the Magic shot 56% from the field and 54% from three. Pacers are also allowing teams to get to the free throw line at an alarming rate, with opponents averaging 26.4 free throw attempts per game.

The offensive end of the floor is where Indiana could run into problems tonight, as the combination of their overall shooting struggles and the Bucks’ defensive ability does not bode well for them. Indiana has gotten a league-leading 20% of their points from the free-throw line over the last five games, but Milwaukee is not an easy team to draw fouls against, as they allow the third-fewest three-throw attempts in the NBA.

Milwaukee has the 12th-best defensive efficiency rating in the league over the last five games, and in that span, they also have the 3rd-best NET rating. During that stretch, the Bucks finished with a 4-1 record and scored 130 or more points in three of those games, so they have been finding success on both ends of the floor.

During that 4-1 span, the Bucks managed to shoot 51.3% from the field, which is almost six percent higher than their full-season average. They have a favorable match-up again tonight to continue their high-level shooting from both the field and from three.

Prop Pick for the Game

For my prop play in this one, I’ll be taking Brook Lopez Over 1.5 three-pointers made at (-125). Lopez is averaging 2.1 three-pointers a game over his last ten games and has gone over his total in seven of those games, including a recent game against Indiana.

The Pacers have allowed the second-highest three-point percentage in the league over the last ten games, as opponents are shooting 41.5% from three. Indiana opponents have also made an average of 13.9 three-pointers per game over the previous ten games, which plays right into Milwaukee’s offensive game plan. Over their last five games, the Bucks’ have gotten 44.4% of their points from three-pointers, and 46.9% of their field goal attempts have come from behind the arc.

Lopez is attempting an average of 5.5 three-pointers per game over the last ten games, and with Indiana’s recent struggles with keeping opponents at bay from three, that number might be even higher tonight. I like Lopez to take advantage of the Pacers' defensive struggles tonight and make at least two three-pointers.