21.02.2023

Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) Game Preview and Pick

Bowling Green will enter tonight on a seven-game losing streak, and they will look to break that on the road as they head to Miami (OH) to take on the RedHawks. We’ll preview the game before going over why I’ll be targeting the point total in this one.

Game Preview

The last time Bowling Green found themselves in the win column was January 24th, in an 83-61 win over Central Michigan. That game was one of the only solid defensive games the Falcons played in conference play, and for that reason, they are 4-10 in MAC games.

Entering tonight, the Falcons are ranked 335th in the country in defensive efficiency rating, according to KenPom, as they allow an average of 79.3 points per game this season. Opponents have found success all over the offensive end against BGSU, with opposing teams shooting an average of 47.4% from the field and 37.3% from three.

The Falcons possess strong offensive capabilities, as they rank 66th in average points per game, and in one of their conference wins, they beat Miami (OH) 83-73. It’s not often the Falcons run into a team with worse defensive numbers, but the RedHawks give them a run for their money in that area. In fact, the RedHawks rank 344th in defensive efficiency rating, according to KenPom.

Miami (OH) has displayed similar defensive issues to the Falcons this season, including an inability to limit three-point shooting. The RedHawks rank 300th in the country in opponent three-point percentage, and in the last meeting between these teams, they allowed the Falcons to shoot 44% from three, despite their season average being 35.4%.

Despite their defensive shortcomings all season, the RedHawks will enter tonight off their best defensive performance since conference play began. Miami (OH) picked up a 66-65 overtime win against Northern Illinois on Saturday, in which they held the Huskies to just 32% from three, so with a win tonight, the RedHawks can win back-to-back games for the first time since November.

Pick for the Game

The point total for this game is currently listed at 152, and I'll be taking the over for my best play in this one. The over is 15-9-1 in Bowling Green games this season and 10-4 when they are listed as an underdog like they are tonight. In the last five meetings between these two teams, the over is 4-0-1, and with the Falcons' style of play, I like that trend to continue tonight.

Bowling Green runs at the 64th fastest tempo in the country, according to KenPom, which has led to them being ranked 61st in field goals made per game, and 344th in opponent field goals made per game. The Falcons are fresh off shooting 11-25 from three in their most recent game and now will take on a RedHawks team that is 216th in opponent three-pointers made per game.

Miami (OH) has generally played at the Falcons' tempo when the teams have met, which resulted in them attempting 61 field goals in the last matchup when they typically average 56.4. Increased field goal attempts is perfect for the point total tonight since the RedHawks are 60th in two-point field goal percentage, and their top two leading scorers are averaging 16 points per game over the last ten games.