The first game of the Thanksgiving NFL slate will feature the Thanksgiving staple Detroit Lions hosting the Buffalo Bills. Both teams enter this week off a win as the Bills will be looking to keep pace with the Dolphins at the top of the division and the Lions look to slowly climb into a wild card spot. We’ll be focusing on two wide receiver prop bets for this one so let’s get right into it.
The Bills' number two-ranked scoring offense taking on the Lions' defense who ranks last in most defensive categories might be the biggest mismatch of the entire day. Detroit is allowing 7.8 passing yards per catch which is 32nd in the league while allowing an average of 262.2 passing yards a game. Josh Allen should be able to take advantage all day and with all the eyes on Stefon Diggs, I think Gabe Davis could have a big day.
Davis is averaging 68 receiving yards a game this season and has gone over his receiving yards prop in five of the nine games he has played in. The Bills receiver racked up 68 yards last week and 93 yards the week prior so it looks like Josh Allen is starting to look for Davis more often.
Allen targeted Davis 10 times in their loss to the Vikings and seven times in last week's win so it certainly looks like he will get his opportunities today, especially against this horrid Lions pass defense. The nice part is Davis has the ability to be both a deep threat and a reliable middle-of-the-field route runner so he can attack the Lions in different ways.
Detroit has been getting exposed by number two receivers all season and struggles against teams with a star receiver and a reliable number two. Adam Theilen was able to go for 61 yards on six catches next to Justin Jefferson and Tyler Lockett went for 91 yards on six catches next to DK Metcalf.
It’s safe to say St. Brown is Jared Goff’s favorite target and today against a mediocre Bills pass defense I think St. Brown could break a big play for this Lions offense. St. Brown’s longest reception average this season is 24.7 yards and the Bills' defense is allowing 220.8 passing yards a game.
Since his return from injury St. Brown is getting targeted by Goff a large amount every game. In the Lions' last four games St. Brown has been targeted 28 times and is averaging 66 yards a game this season. If the Lions fall behind today I think St. Brown could be called upon to go make plays and get them back into the game.
Detroit certainly likes to rely on their running backs as they run the ball the 11th most in the NFL but that gameplan might need to be adjusted today against a stellar Bills run defense. Unlike their pass defense, the Bills have been able to stop the run all season and only allow an average of 106.6 rush yards a game. Look for the Lions to air it out a bit more today and St. Brown to break a big one.