It’s an old adage that a series doesn’t start until a team wins on the road, well both teams have now taken a game in the opposing ballpark and the series is all tied up 2-2 heading into tonight’s game five. This series has had a mix of everything including a combined no-hitter last night for the Astros. Tonight will be the last night the series will be played in Philadelphia so it’ll be the last chance for the Phillies to play in front of what’s been the best home-field advantage in the entire playoffs. There are plenty of ways to bet on tonight’s action but there are three bets in specific I will be putting on my card.
My favorite bet of the night for game five is over 3.5 runs in the first five innings at (-132) on FanDuel Sportsbook. This series has had a lot of ups and downs when it comes to scoring highlighted by the Phillies hitting five home runs in game three and then getting no-hit in game four which is a good representation of how cruel baseball can be at times. However, this is the last time Philadelphia will play in front of a sold-out Citizens Bank Park so I expect them to come out swinging against Houston starter Justin Verlander.
The probable CY-Young winner this year took the loss in game one which means he comes into tonight with a 0-6 record in World Series games. Verlander looked unhittable in the first three innings of game one but he let up a combined five runs between the fourth and fifth innings that drove him out of the game. The Phillies line-up seemed to pick up the ball well out of Verlander’s hand hitting three doubles off him and drawing two walks.
Houston’s line-up showed last night that the Phillies aren’t the only team who can get to the opponent's ace as they have now scored eight total runs in the series off Phillies starter Aaron Nola. The Astros will face right Noah Syndergaard who has yet to pitch in this series and has only thrown 4 ⅓ innings all postseason so Houston stacked line-up should be able to get to him with little problem.
In every game of the series so far at least five runs have been scored in the first five innings and I expect that trend to continue tonight. I’m looking for this crowd to erupt early in the game and for runs to be scored in bunches.
My last two plays of the night are hitter prop bets and both half-unit plays but we will start with my Astros player prop. I’ll be targeting Alex Bregman to go over 1.5 total bases tonight at (+148) which is available in a few books like Unibet and the Barstool Sportsbook.
In his last 10 games, this postseason Bregman is averaging 2.2 bases per game and has gone over his total bases prop eight out of those ten games. The Astros third baseman is no newcomer when it comes to World Series baseball as this is the fourth time he’s been a part of the October classic so no matter what the atmosphere around him looks like you can trust Bregman to perform at the plate.
Bregman has two doubles already this series and is 1 for 2 in his career with an RBI off tonight’s starter Noah Syndergaard. The Astros know they need to attack the starter in this one early to score some runs before having to face a bullpen arm like SerAnthony Dominguez so I expect Bregman to be aggressive at the plate early.
Our last bet for game five will be Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh to go over .5 bases tonight at (+105) on BetMGM. Marsh has been a spark plug for this Phillies line-up in the nine-hole all series and was able to get to Verlander for a double in game one as well. He seems to pick up the ball well out of Verlander’s hand as he has faced him six times in his career and is 1 for 3 with 3 walks against him.
Marsh is averaging 1.3 total bases a game in his last 10 games and has gone over his total base prop in two of the three games he has played in this series. When the Phillies line-up has rallied this series Marsh has been involved and a big hit from the nine-hole is the exact thing this team and fan base needs in order to head into Houston up 3-2 in the series.
Over 3.5 Runs in F5 (-132)
Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+148) (.5 unit play)
Brandon Marsh Over .5 Total Bases (+105) (.5 unit play)