02.06.2023

Baltimore Orioles @ San Francisco Giants Game Preview and Prop Pick

The Orioles and Giants are both coming off series losses and an off day, as they will now meet tonight in San Francisco to start a three-game series. We’ll preview tonight’s game one before going over my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

San Francisco started their series against the Pirates with a lot of promise as they put up 14 runs in a 14-4 win. The next two games went much differently, though, as they lost a pitcher's duel in game two and let up nine runs in game three in a five-run loss. San Francisco put up 12 hits on Wednesday night but could only scratch across four runs, with young guys Patrick Bailey and Casey Schmitt picking up two of the RBIs.

Starting off the series on the bump tonight will be the Giants ace, Logan Webb. In 11 starts and 72 innings, the right-hander has pitched to a 2.75 ERA with 76 strikeouts and 14 walks. Webb was dominant in his most recent outing as he went seven innings with 11 strikeouts and just one earned run allowed on four hits.

Webb will face an Orioles team that lost a highly entertaining series against the Guardians. Baltimore was held scoreless in the first game but went on to score 16 runs over the next two games while only securing one win. In their 12-8 loss on Wednesday, the Orioles had 12 hits, including four extra-base hits in the game, but it wasn’t enough to keep pace with Cleveland, who had 16 hits.

With Baltimore looking to get back on track on the mound, they will send Dean Kremer to the hill tonight. The right-hander has thrown 59 innings up to this point with a 4.58 ERA and 48 strikeouts to go along with 17 walks. Kremer took his first loss since April 29th in his most recent start, as he went 6 ⅓ innings with five strikeouts and three earned runs allowed.

Prop Pick

Logan Webb’s strikeout prop tonight is set at 5.5, and I’ll be taking the over, which is priced at (+102). The right-hander is averaging 6.91 strikeouts a game this season and has gone over this total in three of his last four starts. Baltimore has had some strikeout problems on the road over the past month, so I think this number and price are excellent value.

The Orioles had a strikeout percentage of 23.3% on the road against righties over the past month, which is tied for the 10th highest in the league. They have also not faced a starter over their past few games with the level of stuff Webb has been throwing this season. The right-hander is in the 88th percentile in chase rate, 71st percentile in strikeout percentage, and has two pitches in his arsenal with a 30.8% or higher whiff percentage.

Webb is currently putting up a career-high CSW percentage at 31.4% and has been dominant in his home ballpark up to this point, as the righty has a 1.65 ERA in five starts. One of the biggest positives about backing Webb is that his stuff plays no matter how deep in the game he is, as he has a 29.3% strikeout percentage the first time through the order and the second.